Abortion Is Not a Gay Issue

Last month, the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force sent out a press release decrying the Supreme Court's decision in the consolidated cases of Gonzales v. Planned Parenthood and Gonzales v. Carhart. The Task Force said that the decision, which bans a particularly grisly form of terminating a fetus whose head is mostly outside the womb, was "draconian" and that the court had made itself the "tool of the anti-choice movement."

That was hardly the first time the Task Force had spoken out on issues at best tangential to the gay community. In addition to stating policy positions on abortion, the Task Force has decried the war in Iraq, supported racial preferences and opposed social security privatization and welfare reform.

In other words, it has again demonstrated that it is a garden-variety leftist organization masquerading as a gay civil rights group; it only represents the interests of gay people who also happen to be ideologically committed members of the furthest reaches of the political left.

I believe abortion should be, as President Clinton said, "safe, legal and rare." But just because one supports the right of women to have the control over their bodies that abortion laws seek to protect does not mean that gay people, ipso facto, believe that the gay rights movement - which has plenty of significant legal battles of its own to win - ought to take a position on abortion.

The strongest case that the Task Force has is that the legal reasoning used to erode abortion laws is the same as that used to harm gays; that is, a "strict constructionist" view of the Constitution that does not recognize any constitutional right to privacy.

In terms of choosing judges, this may be the rule in practice, but it is hardly a principle that opposition to abortion laws translates into opposition to gay rights; there are, after all, plenty of gays who oppose abortion. Moreover, there is a much stronger constitutional basis for the protection of the rights of consenting adults (in gay rights cases) than the right to take a potential life.

Lawrence v. Texas, the 2003 Supreme Court case that overturned state sodomy laws, rarely mentioned the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling and did so only in passing. In that case, Justice Kennedy, writing for the majority, found that "the Texas statute furthers no legitimate state interest which can justify its intrusion into the personal and private life of the individual."

Abortion, reasonable people ought to be able to agree, raises more complicated questions regarding "intrusions" in the "personal and private" lives of individuals, namely, the potentiality of human life. It is for this reason that Kennedy himself, no slouch when it comes to the Constitution and hardly a right-wing reactionary, was able to write the majority opinions in both the pro-gay Lawrence and pro-life Gonzales v. Carhart cases without sounding intellectually inconsistent.

And as if it merited mentioning: abortion is biologically a heterosexual issue. Noting this fact does not make gays who oppose abortion selfish, it merely emphasizes further that abortion is, in its essence, something with which heterosexual women and their partners struggle. The only way in which abortion could ever be tied to gay political concerns is in the rare case when a surrogate or lesbian mother decides, for whatever reason, to abort the fetus that she agreed to carry prior to insemination.

But these instances are morally incomparable with the cases of most heterosexual women who choose to undergo abortions because of an unplanned pregnancy. As the gay columnist and law professor Dale Carpenter has written, "'Oops babies' are simply not a phenomenon common to gay life."

New pre-natal technology will pose interesting questions for gay activists who believe that abortion rights ought to be hewn to the fight for gay equality. For years, gay activists - backed by scientific discoveries - have claimed the existence of a gay gene. In the near future, if this gene is to be found and isolated, what will the Task Force say about those potential parents who wish to abort their gay gene-carrying fetus, just as a woman bearing a fetus with a cleft palate or Down's Syndrome is able to do?

Because of legal abortion, in the not-too-distant future, there may be a vast culling of potential gay lives simply because of the fact that those lives will be gay.

To win equality nationally, the gay rights movement will have to convince many people of the justness of its cause. A lot of those people are religious, live in the middle and southern parts of the United States and fervently oppose abortion. How does taking a position on the most divisive cultural issue of the past three decades advance the cause of gay rights?

Houses Passes Hate Crimes Bill, Veto Looms?

The Senate has yet to act, but the administration may be signaling its intent to veto this bill. Dale Carpenter's take, at The Volokh Conspiracy:

Andrew Sullivan, who like me opposes hate crimes laws as a general matter, complains that Bush's [expected] veto of this bill represents a double-standard under which gays are just about the only commonly victimized group left out of the special protection federal law already provides....

The problem with this criticism, however, is that the bill does much more than simply add "sexual orientation" to the existing federal law on hate crimes passed in 1968.... The bill considerably expands federal jurisdiction over hate crimes in general, for all categories, by eliminating the current requirement that the crime occur while the victim is engaged in a federally protected activity. That jurisdictional limitation has kept federal involvement very limited in an area where state authority has traditionally reigned....

The veto of an amendment merely adding sexual orientation to existing federal law would pretty clearly reflect an anti-gay double-standard. A veto of this much more comprehensive bill does not.

Log Cabin has a different view, praising the bill and noting its bipartisan support. (Aside: why is Log Cabin still unable to post a press release on its website the same day they email it out far and wide?)

And Jamie Kirchick weighs in.

An emerging federalist consensus: The bill raises a number of concerns, none of which seem central to its opponents on the anti-gay right to whom Bush may feel he needs to pander. For them, the key point is not the expansion of federal jurisdiction; it's gay inclusion and terrors relating to the normalization of homosexuality.

Crosscurrents in 2008

Author Gore Vidal, who enjoys provocation, once said that God is a convenient fiction. The same can be said of "gay community." Despite the common tendency to generalize based on gay urban ghettos and prominent liberal voices, the LGBT population is distributed across all neighborhoods, professions, avocations, income levels and viewpoints.

LGBT people are on various sides of disputes over immigration, gun control, tax reform, smoking bans, gangsta rap - and presidential elections. Given the multiplicity of directions in which we are going, it is implausible to describe a particular position as "the gay position." Like the population as a whole, we are scattered across affinity groups and risk groups and political philosophies.

It is easy to lose sight of this as another presidential race heats up and various gay politicos line up behind different candidates. Once you have jumped on board a particular campaign, your job is to emphasize how wonderful your candidate is and how terrible the others are. But with no one other than comic-relief candidate Dennis Kucinich supporting civil marriage equality, and no great courage visible among generally gay-friendly candidates on issues such as gays in the military, there is no slam-dunk gay case to be made for one candidate. Non-gay considerations, therefore, are likely to be the deciding factors.

Last week, Republican front-runner Rudy Giuliani, who had previously taken a position similar to Hillary Clinton's supporting civil unions but not same-sex marriage, pulled a Mitt Romney. Reacting to New Hampshire's civil unions bill, Giuliani's campaign told the New York Sun, "In this specific case the law states same-sex civil unions are the equivalent of marriage and recognizes same-sex unions from outside states. This goes too far and Mayor Giuliani does not support it."

If Giuliani prevails in the Republican race, his continued support for the lesser alternative of domestic partnerships might still leave some opening for gay Republicans to push their party in a more gay-accepting direction. But a stronger impression from his stunning flip-flop is a sober reminder of the futility of expecting leadership from politicians on controversial social issues. The GOP will not summon what its greatest standard-bearer called the better angels of its nature until the party's voters repudiate the fanatics to whom Giuliani and Romney are pandering.

Senator Clinton's vague promise of access to a second Clinton White House does not bowl me over any more than her barren slogan, "In it to win it," but she deserves credit for being the only candidate from either major party who responded to the Human Rights Campaign's invitation to meet. And her strong performance in the April 26 Democratic candidates' debate reinforces perceptions that she is the one to beat.

Barack Obama's inspiring delivery and sophisticated responses, coupled with his strong early fundraising, suggest that he has staying power. John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd all performed credibly on April 26, with Senators Biden and Dodd serving a useful purpose just by lending their experienced perspectives to the discussion. In a pleasant departure from the general rhetorical caution, Dodd, expressing support for civil unions, speculated that his young daughters could turn out to be lesbians. In general, the hesitance of the major candidates to address LGBT concerns shows how much work we have left to do.

What common cause can we find in the campaign free-for-all? If you are a Democrat, you may be willing to settle for any of the Democratic candidates, but that leaves out the roughly one-fourth of gay exit-poll responders who vote for Republicans. Frustrating though it may be, it makes no sense to talk of a single, cohesive LGBT movement once it sinks in that our diversity is less a value to be celebrated than a reality to be faced.

Sometimes we can best view people far from us on the political landscape as laboring in another part of the vineyard. But when that metaphor fails - when others appear from our vantage point to be pulling up the vines - then, by recognizing that we cannot police beliefs, we can perhaps make our peace with the fact that all of us are part of the social ferment which over time has led to greater opportunities and freedom.

Election decisions are easier if you use litmus tests. If you refuse to vote for any candidate who does not support marriage equality, you can give up after Kucinich loses. But for those of us intent upon making the best available choice, the presence of multiple gay-friendly candidates is more significant than their imperfections. And having a visible gay presence in multiple campaigns is more important than collectively agreeing on a candidate. It shows that we are an integral part of the body politic, which (at least for this assimilationist) is a victory in itself.

Unrelated Events?

In the latest gay scandal, John Browne, the heretofore closeted head of oil giant BP, resigns for (among other transgressions) the misuse of company assets on behalf of his former boyfriend. The scandal brings to mind the resignation of New Jersey Gov. James McGreevey.

Openly gay Episcopal Bishop Gene Robinson announces his impending civil union, sure to further inflame anti-gay Episcopalian/Anglican reactionaries, as Nigerian Bishop Peter Akinola, who wants gays imprisoned for socializing together, visits the U.S. to "bless" anti-gay break-away churches and install his puppet bishop over them.

Meanwhile, James McGreevey is taking steps to become an Episcopal priest.

A Big (Gay) Italian Wedding

This past weekend I attended a big Italian wedding in New York. I grew up on Long Island, in a family where big Italian weddings are a staple. This one had all the usual trappings: loud music, louder relatives, tons of food.

This one, however, had two grooms.

If you were just passing through the reception hall, you might not have noticed. The male-female ratio was a bit high, but not by much: most of the 140 guests were from the grooms' families. There was a "Nana" (Grandma) dressed in silver from head to toe: silver hair, silver dress, silver shoes. There were buxom aunts with too much makeup; uncles with big moustaches and perfectly slicked hair; excited mothers, proud fathers. Children ran about yanking at their bows and neckties, their Sunday clothes increasingly askew as the day progressed. A DJ kept prodding people to dance, and no one-not even the wait staff-batted an eye at the handful of same-sex couples swaying amidst the others.

At one point my partner leaned over to me and said, "This feels weird."

I knew what he meant. And it wasn't just the weirdness that accompanies all weddings: the gaudy pageantry; the forced intimacy with distant relatives and acquaintances; the cheesy running commentary from the DJ ("on this day, the most important day of their lives…"-ugh). It was the fact that, where we would normally be stealth attendees, we were suddenly the main event. This was not some newfangled "commitment ceremony"-it was a big, old-fashioned Italian wedding, with grandparents, aunts, uncles, cousins, nieces, nephews, godparents, and so on.

Most gays have a strange relationship with weddings. We are stereotypically (and often in fact) connected with their planning and execution, as florists, designers, musicians, priests, and so on. But as guests we are typically outsiders. We gather to celebrate love in a world that doesn't want to hear about ours. We sit at tables with relatives and friends who may not know that we're gay and may not like it if they do. We are warned not to "spoil things" by "making a scene." So when the slow songs play, we dance with Nana. Like the guys on "Queer Eye," we help plan others' events and then retreat invisibly into the background. I've always found it rather cruel.

But not here. And that was weird…in a good way.

One of the grooms has been a friend of mine for 24 years. Bob and I attended high school together: Chaminade, an all-male Catholic prep school on Long Island. In every class we shared I sat behind him, not because of any particular bond between us, but because we sat alphabetically and his last name begins with "Cors".

Lunch was the only time we could choose our seating partners, and there we sat together again, along with about a half-dozen other guys over the course of our four years there. At least five of those guys have turned out to be gay (another is a Catholic priest whose sexual orientation I've never bothered to ask). Go ahead and joke about "gaydar," but somehow we found kindred spirits years before any of us dared to admit-to ourselves or others-our sexual orientation.

Had you told me then that decades later I would be attending the gay wedding of one of my lunch buddies, I would have prayed for you (I was very Catholic then; skepticism set in later). Had you added that I would be attending with my own male partner, I would have…well, I would have prayed for me. By then I was aware enough of my burgeoning gayness to fear it.

So it was particularly sweet for me, in the same week I received the invitation to our twenty-year high school reunion, to stand up with Bob's family and friends and witness his wedding to Joe. It felt good to say "Congratulations" to his Mom and Dad in the receiving line-the same Mom and Dad who posed for graduation pictures with us two decades earlier. It was delightful (though a sobering reminder of my age) to meet his younger sister's children, some of whom will soon be thinking about high school themselves.

Political battles are important and necessary. But the fight for marriage equality will ultimately be won only when our nanas and aunts and uncles and cousins and nieces and nephews see our marriages as the family-extending events that they are. Congratulations, Joe, Bob, and family.

On Liberty and Liberals

Openly gay Rep. Barney Frank has a strong record in support of what might loosely be called cultural or lifestyle libertarianism (my phrase, and yes, I know sexual orientation isn't a "lifestyle"), on issues such as gay marriage, gambling and medicinal marijuana. But as the Cato Institute's David Boaz blogs, Frank's other causes revolve around support for greater government economic intervention.

"Liberal" used to mean support for free markets, and still does in Europe. But not in America, where liberals remain deeply suspicious of free economic decision-making. As Boaz writes of Frank:

This year, as Financial Services chairman, he's demonstrating his interventionist tendencies as well as his sometime libertarian instincts. He wants to push all workers into government health care, to regulate corporate decisions about executive compensation, to put more obstacles in the way of free trade across national borders, to keep Wal-Mart from creating an internal bank clearinghouse to hold down its costs. Not to mention expanding anti-discrimination rules to include gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender people.

American liberals' seem to believe that the economy needs the firm guiding hand of highly intelligent, morally righteous officials such as themselves. That's a carryover not from the classical liberalism of John Locke, Adam Smith and John Stuart Mill, but from later European socialist philosophies that were noticeably "illiberal" on the issue of individual freedom as opposed to the "rights" of the collective.

Yet, as Boaz notes, Frank told a journalist: "In a number of areas, I am a libertarian. I think that John Stuart Mill's 'On Liberty' is a great statement, and I was just rereading it." Comments Boaz:

Would that the Republicans who once took Congress on the promise of "the end of government that is too big, too intrusive, and too easy with the public's money" also reread (or read) "On Liberty" and take its message to heart. And would that Barney Frank come to realize that adults should also be free to spend the money they earn as they choose and to decide what contracts, with foreign businesses or local job applicants, they will enter into.

More Political Double Standards

A coalition of conservative African American pastors is lobbying Congress to vote against a bill that would extend federal hate-crimes laws to cover gays, the Wash Post reports. I've often heard that homophobia in the African American community is a sign that GLBT groups need to do more "outreach" and be more "inclusive" toward racial minorities, and that we need to start by confessing our own racism. But you never hear that homophobia among white evangelicals is, say, a sign that gay groups need to reach out more to those people. So why are African American homophobes simply misguided while white homophobes are routinely characterized as "evil"?

Speaking of church-inspired homophobia, another Wash Post story looks at anti-gay religious rightist John Arthur Eaves running for governor of Mississippi. The catch: he's a Democrat. In fact, Eaves is wrong about everything, favoring a bigger spending, more intrusive government that also discriminates against gays. The paper reports:

An Eaves victory would also be a shot across the bow to the Democrats' liberal base, raising the question of how far the party is willing to go in jettisoning its support for abortion rights, gay rights and a high wall of separation between church and state for a chance at electoral success [in the South].

With all the money that gays give to the national Democratic party, it will be interesting to see if this new, localized "Southern strategy" is allowed to take hold.

ENDA Won’t End Bigotry

Rep. Christopher Shays has an odd reason for supporting a proposal designed to eliminate employment discrimination based on gender identity or sexual orientation.

"I want a gentler world," the Connecticut Republican told The Associated Press in a recent interview about the proposed Employment Non-Discrimination Act of 2007. "I want a world where people are nicer to each other and more respectful. I want a more moral world and this legislation meets all those needs."

Shays is a co-sponsor of the bill, along with Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., Rep. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., and Rep. Deborah Pryce, R-Ohio.

This was a curious statement, even for a moderate Republican like Shays. The essence of traditional conservatism, at least philosophically, acknowledges the world as it is, not the way supposedly starry-eyed liberals would like it to be.

Attempting to change people's deep-seated beliefs through the act of the legislative pen seems like something that Republicans make fun of Democrats for doing.

This is not to say that the Employment Non-Discrimination Act is unworthy of bipartisan support. The bill is one of the most important pieces of legislation in the modern-day civil rights agenda. It would make it illegal for employers to determine hiring, firing, promotion or salary decisions on the basis of sexual orientation or gender identity.

Discriminating upon the basis of race, gender, national origin, age or disability has long been illegal, and if one accepts that homosexuality is as intrinsic a factor in someone's personhood as these other traits, and agrees that private employers ought not be allowed to discriminate based upon innate characteristics, then the bill should merit support.

Religious institutions and the military (which actively discriminates against open homosexuals already and is permitted to do so under the auspices of the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy) would be exempt from the law.

It is currently legal to fire someone because of sexual orientation in 33 states, which the passage of a federal anti-discrimination bill like the Employment Non-Discrimination Act would end.

This injustice of not being able to get a job or being fired simply for what one does in the bedroom, or because of one's gender identity, is as pressing for gay-rights advocates as the denial of marriage rights. Unfortunately, there is little credible statistical evidence of such discrimination, but gay-rights advocates are convinced the abundant anecdotal illustrations support their case for passage.

But at the end of the day, there is only so little that government action can do to make people "more moral," in spite of Shays' sanguine forecast. Understanding the confines of government power over the consciences of individuals is something that those on both the left and right would do well to appreciate. Anti-sodomy laws, overturned in 2003, did nothing to stop people from engaging in certain sex acts that some Americans view as immoral.

The prohibition of alcohol - which was mandated by constitutional fiat - did not stop people from drinking booze. Likewise, penalizing private employers for discriminating against homosexuals will not suddenly convert them into full-fledged supporters of gay equality.

There is an important distinction, however, between what people believe and how they act. Slavery was officially abolished in the United States in 1865, but any student of American history knows that active, government discrimination against blacks hardly ended with the passage of the 13th, 14th and 15th amendments to the Constitution.

It was not until nearly 100 years later, with passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, that blacks-at least in law-were accorded full equality with other citizens. Prior to the passage of this bill, the federal government was repeatedly required, sometimes by physical might, to enforce equal treatment under the law.

It would be nice if we lived in a world where people did not discriminate against those of a different color, gender identity or sexual orientation. Perhaps if people just stopped and listened to the sternly worded resolutions that the United Nations issues every day, then maybe the genocide in Darfur would cease, Robert Mugabe would stop oppressing his starving people, and Muslim countries would mandate that women not be treated as property.

Would all this be so. But mere legislation won't make bigotry go away.

McCain Looking Better?

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to have serious difficulty grasping what federalism is all about. First, he finds a right under the U.S. Constitution that requires government-funded (via taxpayers) abortions. Now, he's announced his opposition to New Hampshire's new civil unions law.

As columnist Ryan Sager writes in the New York Sun:

Mr. Giuliani's position on the New Hampshire law puts him in the company of the former governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, the only other major presidential candidate from either party who opposes the New Hampshire law....

Senator McCain of Arizona said the issue was one of states' rights and took no position on the New Hampshire law specifically....

Witnessing how politicos in both parties dance around gay issues, hinting at support one day, backing off the next (with none of the majors daring to favor ending the prohibitation on legal recognition of same-sex marriage) should rev up your distrust of government at all levels. To quote Ronald Reagan (admittedly in another context), "Government isn't the solution to our problems; government is the problem."

More. Writing on the New Republic's The Plank blog, Jamie Kirchick notes:

One of the reasons why Giuliani was so attractive to middle-of-the-road voters was because he did not seem-at least at first-to parrot the anti-gay agenda of the Republican party base. He always seemed genuinely comfortable around gay people....

But having gotten burned with an indefensible abortion position, he's apparently trying to make "amends" with the base via a little gay bashing. Note to Rudy: Flip-flopping on gays didn't help Mitt Romney, and it won't help you, either. You're not going to win over the social conservatives, but you will drive away independents and libertarian-leaners who are among the majority of Americans who favor civil unions (as long as they're not called "marriages") and who just might have voted for you.

More again. To be fair, Giuliani doesn't seem to have said that he would use federal power to reverse the state law, just his bully pulpit. Still, the lesson is clear: Place not your trust in politicians!

Still more. Right Side of the Rainbow offers some pertinent observations.

David Blankenhorn’s Causal Casuistry

Opponents of gay marriage have tried a number of arguments, all of which have failed to end the progress toward the recognition of gay relationships. Now they're trying out a new one that ties gay marriage to a miasma of marital and familial decline.

Gay-marriage opponents first argued that same-sex couples could not be married because the definition of marriage is the union of a man and a woman. This worked as long as nobody thought very hard about the issue, but it fails as soon as you realize the whole argument is over what the definition should include.

Some gay-marriage opponents tried to frighten the public with negative stereotypes of gays. The problem is that too many Americans know actual gay people for this to have much effect anymore.

Next they warned that gay marriage would be the first step down a slippery slope toward things like polygamy. But this failed to catch on because there just aren't that many people clamoring for ten-person marriages. Two is hard enough.

They moved on to children after that, warning that gay couples couldn't do as good a job as a biological mother and father. This argument still has some life, but its power wanes when people realize that gay marriage won't take children away from biological parents who want to raise them. And marriage would help the more than one million children now being raised by gay people.

Now, in a new book entitled The Future of Marriage, family and marriage scholar David Blankenhorn tries a new argument. He argues that support for gay marriage is part of a destructive "cluster" of "mutually reinforcing" beliefs about family life. He cites international surveys of attitudes about families and marriage showing that the presence of gay marriage in a country correlates with a series of beliefs that he describes as, roughly speaking, anti-marriage.

For example, people in countries with gay marriage are more likely to agree with statements like, "One parent can bring up a child as well as two parents together," or, "It is alright for a couple to live together without intending to get married."

Conversely, people in countries with no recognition of gay relationships are more likely to agree with statements like, "Married people are generally happier than unmarried people," or, "The main purpose of marriage these days is to have children."

In other words, Blankenhorn notes that there is a correlation between non-traditional beliefs about marriage and support for gay marriage. He claims this allows us to "infer" a "likely causal relation" between gay marriage and anti-marriage views.

What do we make of this latest anti-gay marriage argument? A correlation might indicate something important is going on. It's a clue that two seemingly unrelated phenomena may be related.

But by itself a correlation doesn't prove that one thing caused another. People who buy ashtrays are more likely to get lung cancer -- but this doesn't prove that buying ashtrays causes lung cancer. If we relied on correlation alone, we'd think all sorts of crazy things were causally related.

Consider what can be done with a correlation used to "infer" a "likely causal relation." People in countries without same-sex marriage are more likely to believe women should stay at home and not work, that men should be masters of their households, that there should be no separation of church and state, that people should not use contraception when they have sex, and that divorce should never be permitted. If these correlations exist, have I demonstrated the existence of a "cluster of beliefs" that reinforce one another, undermining the argument against gay marriage?

Or consider the more sympathetic correlations to gay marriage that Blankenhorn ignores. Countries with SSM are richer, healthier, more democratic, more educated, and more respectful of individual rights. Have I shown that the absence of gay marriage is likely causing harm in those benighted countries that refuse to recognize it?

Here's another correlation helpful to the case for gay marriage: countries with gay marriage are enjoying higher marriage rates since they recognized it. Have I shown that gay marriage likely caused this?

Even Blankenhorn's correlation is suspect. Non-traditional attitudes about marriage preceded the recognition of gay marriage in the countries that have it. How could gay marriage have caused a decline in traditional marital attitudes before it even existed?

Of course, Blankenhorn is still free to argue that non-traditional attitudes greased the way for gay marriage, but this doesn't show that it caused or even reinforced non-traditional attitudes. What Blankenhorn needs, even as a starting point, is some evidence that non-traditionalist views increased after gay marriage began. He doesn't have that. Even if he did, such a rise might well only be a continuation of pre-existing trends.

And even if he had the sequence right, Blankenhorn would still have the problem of trying to deal with the existence of multiple other factors that have plausibly fueled non-traditionalist attitudes. We can plausibly surmise that things like increased income, longer life spans, more education, and women's equality - rather than gay marriage - have led to non-traditionalist attitudes about marriage.

Intellectual guilt-by-association has an easy appeal that may make Blankenhorn's argument an anti-gay marriage mantra in the future. His superficially frightening correlations have to be carefully unpacked to show how misleading they are.