Okay, if I were a betting man, I'd still wager that Obama takes it and the Democrats extend their gains in Congress. But that result isn't anywhere near as certain as before McCain's strategically brilliant (yes, politically speaking, brilliant) selection of Sarah Palin, which unleashed the unvarnished hatred and elitism of the angry left with the predicable result of prodding non-elite America to give the GOP another look.
Not only are some national polls now giving McCain a slight edge (and a slightly bigger lead among likely voters), but according to Gallup the battle for Congress suddenly looks competitive. Per Gallup, "If these numbers are sustained through Election Day-a big if-Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives."
Which is to say, the LGBT beltway activists' commitment to a one-party roll of the dice is looking like an even more high-risk proposition that it was a few weeks ago.
Further thoughts. Leaving aside the enthusiasm among African-Americans for the first major-party black presidential nominee, this race increasingly is about the urban/urbane/secular vs. those who aren't. Palin didn't have an abortion. She (like the president they detest) prays for God's guidance (the "religious nut" who proclaims, "I would never presume to know God's will or to speak God's words. But what Abraham Lincoln had said, and that's a repeat in my comments, was let us not pray that God is on our side in a war or any other time, but let us pray that we are on God's side"). She doesn't have an Ivy League degree. She, in short, challenges the left's sense of entitlement to rule based on its perceived cultural superiority.
But the LGBT movement is, for all intents and purposes, an appendage of the cultural and political left (for many good historical reasons; primarily being homophobia fueled by religious intolerance and provincial conservatism). Yet, as I've argued, failure to make gaining inroads among conservative-minded independents a key strategy, and instead focusing on achieving victory by and through the hoped-for ascendancy of the political left, has rendered the gay movement deeply vulnerable to the reversals that result when the center-right majority expresses its antipathy toward elite left-progressive opinion (as when majorities vote to overturn the pro-gay decisions of liberal courts).
Two op-eds, worlds apart. B. Dan Blatt of GayPartiot.net on the lack of personal animosity toward gays at the Republican convention (Proud to be a Republican). And Joan Garry, former head of the Gay & Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation (GLAAD), attacking gay Republicans (Chickens are voting for Colonel Sanders) and demonstrating why, under her tenure, GLAAD completely failed to reach out to the American center and instead devoted itself to honoring, ad nauseum, the cultural left.