Now He Gets It?

The most that can be said about Bill Clinton's newfound (and feeble) belief in marriage equality is "Better late than never."

One would have expected the former president's change of heart to garner more media coverage than it has. Clinton is, after all, the only living ex-president to support same-sex marriage. Perhaps the lack of attention was attributable to a belated realization on the part of the media that political endorsements are overrated. Or maybe it's because the public is tired of hearing about gay marriage. Whatever the reason, I suspect that the press's woolgathering had something to do with the fact that a sizable portion of the population has finally come to the realization that most of the things that emerge from Bill Clinton's mouth are prevarications, hot air, outright lies, or some combination of the three. One can hope.

At an annual convention of liberal college activists held in Washington last week, Clinton was asked if he would publicly support efforts to enact same-sex marriage. "I'm basically in support," he answered. Asked if he personally believed in the cause, he replied "Yeah. I personally support people doing what they want to do. I think it's wrong for someone to stop someone else from doing that."

What eloquence! What moral conviction! Remember that these stirring words come from a man who, prior to the emergence of Barack Obama, was widely considered to be the greatest political communicator alive.

While few in the mainstream media seemed to care about Clinton's inarticulate and hedging announcement, it did come as news to gay activists. That's because when Clinton was last heard from on the issue in May, he said that his stance was "evolving." At least Clinton's "evolution" was faster than that of prehistoric man.

It bears repeating that the most pressing causes of the gay rights movement today - repealing the Defense of Marriage Act and "don't ask, don't tell" - are the result of problems he created as the 42nd president of the United States. And despite the manifold indignities that he inflicted upon countless gay Americans with his role in implementing these two laws, Clinton still refuses to acknowledge any wrongdoing on his part, never mind apologize.

Witness his angry and patronizing interview, so typical of his undignified behavior during the last Democratic presidential primary, with a group of college students assembled by MTV last year. Asked about his 1996 signing of DOMA, Clinton portrayed himself as some sort of hero who was actually doing gay people a favor by preventing the worse option of a constitutional amendment. But there was no talk of such an amendment in 1996, and plenty of Democrats voted against the law. If the decision that Clinton made in 1996 was so painstaking, why did he brag about it on Christian radio stations during the presidential campaign?

And Clinton has the gall to accuse Republicans of using gay issues for electoral gain!

To make his point, Clinton only mentioned the part of DOMA that allows states not to recognize marriages or civil unions performed in other states, giving credence to the specter of gays descending upon red America in search of marriage licenses. In so doing Clinton neglected to contend with the other and far more damaging aspect of DOMA, which forbids the federal government from bestowing the myriad rights and obligations (which the Government Accounting Office has estimated to number 1,138) that straight couples receive to same-sex couples.

Similarly, last January, Clinton ridiculed the notion that he shared any blame for the passage of "don't ask, don't tell" or that the statute is all that invidious.

" 'Don't ask, don't tell,' as articulated as I worked it out with Colin Powell, who was then the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, meant literally that ... that people would be free to live their lives as long as they didn't go march in gay rights parades or go to gay bars in uniform ... in uniform ... and talk about it on duty, they would be all right. Now, as soon as he [Colin Powell] left, the antigay forces in the military started using it as an excuse to kick people out.'"

Discharges of gay soldiers rose under Clinton. If he was so concerned about the way the law was being implemented, he could have done something about it.

After leaving office Clinton added insult to injury. We also know that in 2004 he advised John Kerry to support not only the many state-level constitutional amendments banning gay marriage, but also the Federal Marriage Amendment championed by President George W. Bush. Five years later, with a series of states having legalized same-sex marriage, the polls decisively showing a generational surge in support for the cause, and - most important in terms of this discussion - the definitive end of the Clinton dynasty upon us, Bill Clinton wants us to know that he "basically" supports gay marriage.

Pardon me for being cool toward the latest tergiversations of this congenital liar and shameless opportunist.

The gay community has never come to terms with the true record of the Clinton White House, as was evident by the overwhelming support Hillary's primary bid received from gay men ... support so slavish and irrational that it pains me to conclude it was predicated on little else besides the woman's diva-like qualities.

Earlier this week the Freedom to Marry coalition issued a press release praising the former president. In their rush to extol him, however, gay activists should be wary. For the most important thing to know about Bill Clinton is that the man never takes a position based upon considerations of things like morality or justice. He takes positions based entirely upon a cold calculation of what will advance his political (and, of late, business) interests. If, for whatever reason, his cynical support for marriage equality gets in the way of his wife's political career or a shady business deal with an Arab oil sheik, Clinton will abandon the cause faster than he fled the 1992 campaign trail to carry out the execution of Ricky Ray Rector, a mentally retarded black prisoner who had shot himself in the head after committing a double homicide.

To provide the most succinct and accurate description of the Clintons, I defer to someone who knows them all too well and who also happens to be the richest and most powerful gay man in America: David Geffen.

Explaining his surprise support for Barack Obama in the Democratic presidential primary, the record producer told Maureen Dowd of The New York Times, "Everybody in politics lies, but [the Clintons] do it with such ease, it's troubling."

Geffen, who raised millions of dollars for the Clintons and twice slept in the Lincoln bedroom, came late to recognizing the mendaciousness of this couple.

Hopefully other gays will follow his lead. Better late than never.

Life Is A Campaign, Old Chum

I just got back from a meeting at a Sacramento church, co-sponsored by Marriage Equality USA, on the subject of whether the community wants to go forward with a Prop. 8 repeal in 2010 or 2012 -- or even later. And I can confidently say this: the politicalization of gay marriage in California is now in full swing. Not many in the gay community wanted it this way, but California's voters decided that the only way we'll get marriage equality here is to persuade the voters we should have it, so we now have to figure out how to do just that.

The pollsters are polling and the consultants are consulting, and if the voters ever heard any of what I just did, a lot of them might want to take back their votes for Prop. 8. Experts galore are slicing and dicing their way through Caifornia's demographics with obsessive fineness. Someone developed a Weekly Workload Estimate of how many voters per week would need to have their minds changed for us to win 51% support in 2010 (7,036 per week) or 2012 (3,171 per week). We were shown some strategies for changing minds, discussed current door-to-door efforts, given tips from Gandhi and MLK on not alienating people, and shown enough statistics to gladden the hearts of the entire graduating class of the Kennedy School of Government.

It was clear, from the early mention of George Lakoff, that the left is still firmly in control of the ride, and that the rest of us should keep our arms and legs inside the conveyance. No surprise there. But the overwhelming feeling in the room wasn't leftist cant, it was raw political calculation. We were informed that we would need to change "hearts and minds" in the tone of a chemistry professor instructing students about combining elements in a beaker.

That, of course, is the way consultants and professionals know how to run campaigns. But it really brought home for me how the science and practice of politics can suck the blood out a humane, enthusiastic and honorable movement for simple fairness. That fairness was built into our state constitution, but a majority of our voters took it out. We now have to live our lives in permanent campaign mode, have to see everything and everyone in terms of political strategy, in order to restore our equality. That will be a big enough job for us, but I even feel a bit sorry for the many heterosexuals who, having had their demographics pored over, will be the "targets" of our missions. That, however, is what the voters have asked of us, and of themselves, by making marriage the subject of constitutional scope. God and Gandhi help us all.

None So Blind

Compare Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz's pro-family reasoning, quoted by Jon below, to that of Sen. Jeff Sessions. Chaffetz can't abide giving committed same-sex couples who work for the federal government equal employment benefits because the proposal doesn't include unmarried straight couples. In contrast, Sen. Sessions predicts the demise of Rep. Mike Honda's bill to provide recognition to the noncitizen partner in committed same-sex relationships (the recognition immigration law now automatically grants to a heterosexual spouse) because it "would be creating a special preference and benefit for a category of immigrants based on a relationship that's not recognized by federal law and overwhelmingly by most states."

So Sen. Sessions views gay equality as a "special preference" while Chaffetz doesn't see gay equality at all, only straight equality.

Let's review the bidding, then. Same-sex couples can't have their relationships recognized by the federal government because of DOMA, and shouldn't be asking for any "special" rights, such as treatment equal (or even roughly equal) to what heterosexuals expect. And if gays do ask for any benefits for their relationships, heterosexuals should expect, not only the benefits they now recieve for being married, but benefits for not being married, so that they'll be treated equally to a group that any reasonable person can see are now treated unequally.

All of this arises because of the GOP's fundamental inability to aknowledge that same-sex couples are not treated equally, or fairly, under current federal law. That increasingly obvious blind spot leads to all of their incoherence.

Those Pro-Family Republicans

National Journal has a story (online for subscribers only) on legislation, now moving in Congress and supported by the Obama Administration, "that would give gay and lesbian federal employees the same benefits now offered to married heterosexual workers"-a bill which Republican Rep. Jason Chaffetz of Utah opposes.

Why? Well, partly "because it excludes unmarried heterosexual couples.... Chaffetz said in an interview that if unmarried heterosexual couples were included in the legislation, 'I'd look at it very differently.' "

Right. If the bill included heterosexual couples, it would be using federal dollars and prestige to encourage straight couples to cohabit. Which apparently is better than encouraging gay couples to form stable and committed unions.

There is nothing pro-family about being anti-gay. Thanks, of a sort, to Rep. Chaffetz for helping prove the point.

2010 Foresight

I don't exactly disagree with Dale's conclusion in his post below on when California should move to repeal Prop. 8. I'm still not convinced one way or the other.

But one of the arguments being articulated misstates a very important point. Prepare to Prevail says this:

Any successful "vote-yes" campaign will require generous support from pro-LGBT institutional donors. These donors give based on evidence of likely success, which for 2010 is filled with grave doubts. It is unlikely that we will be able to raise the necessary funds to undertake an effective electoral campaign until after 2010. . . .

Remember, the original estimates for Prop. 8 spending, in total, were in the range of about $40 million -- for both sides combined. Particularly during extremely heated and close campaigns, people and institutions find resources they wouldn't otherwise have identified. That happened far beyond anyone's expectations during Prop. 8.

It may or may not happen again, whether it's in 2010 or 2012 (I am not waiting for 2014). But whenever it does happen, the campaign will be an extraordinary event. Unless something momentous happens in another state, I expect California will be the first to actually have the voters repeal a constitutional amendment they, themselves, passed banning same-sex marriage. That will certainly draw resources from a lot of places. But I don't think anybody could reasonably be putting that funding into place prior to the election itself -- at least not in the amounts spent during Prop. 8.

Prepare to Prevail's argument strikes me more as an excuse to delay, rather than a sound argument. There are some good reasons to wait until 2012. This isn't one of them.

Can the 2010 Train Be Stopped?

It appears that some gay activists in California are starting to doubt the wisdom of pushing to repeal Prop 8 in 2010. One group outlines some considerations that make a lot of sense, including these:

Over $81 million was raised and spent by both sides in the Proposition 8 campaign, more than in any previous anti-gay ballot initiative. Many of the LGBT nonprofit organizations doing critical work for our communities have suffered layoffs and cutbacks in services. . . . Major donors, including foundations that provided funding for critical educational campaigns, have endured hits to their portfolios, and many are exercising caution. Any successful "vote-yes" campaign will require generous support from pro-LGBT institutional donors. These donors give based on evidence of likely success, which for 2010 is filled with grave doubts. It is unlikely that we will be able to raise the necessary funds to undertake an effective electoral campaign until after 2010. . . .

The demographics of opinion on marriage equality indicate that natural changes in the state electorate, with new and younger voters replacing older voters, contributes over time to increased support for marriage equality. In weighing the options of presenting a ballot measure on statewide ballots either next year, in 2010, or in a future year, the latter portends a much greater capacity by marriage equality supporters to leverage and benefit from the natural shift in voter opinion.

Some ACLU leaders, including Matt Coles, think even 2012 is too soon (and they may be right). Equality California, which indicated preliminary support for 2010 back in May, is now (re)considering the issue.

The reality of having to get our act together -- in raising money, strategizing, volunteering, campaigning, and winning -- for an election less than a year and a half away is starting to settle in. At least, that's what I'm hoping.

Fear Itself

Plenty of people have weighed in on former President Bill Clinton's newfound support for same-sex marriage, but little can be added to Jamie Kirchick's piece in the Advocate, ripping Clinton a new one -- not that Clinton needs a new one.

In response to Clinton's stirring reply to the question of whether he personally believed in equal marriage rights for same-sex couples: ""Yeah. I personally support people doing what they want to do. I think it's wrong for someone to stop someone else from doing that," Jamie is in fine form:

What eloquence! What moral conviction! Remember that these stirring words come from a man who, prior to the emergence of Barack Obama, was widely considered to be the greatest political communicator alive.

What is it about our equality that reduces the likes of Clinton, and even Obama, to Bush-like grunts and circumlocutions? Even in retirement, is Clinton still so shell-shocked from the nation's last hurricane of homophobia? That was 15 years ago, which is about 45 in gay rights years. Does Obama really believe that any reaction today to his leadership on repeal of Clinton's signature achievements on gay equality, DADT and DOMA, would be worse than what he faced during the campaign over Rev. Jeremiah Wright, palling around with terrorists, or people clinging to guns and religion?

The rhetorical scraps we get from these mighty orators should be compared to the simple eloquence of Meghan McCain, who has no trouble saying, "No matter how politically charged the discussions about marriage equality may get, the question is really a simple one: Do the rights and privileges we offer citizens include everyone in our country, or only some of us?"

McCain isn't a politician, and can articulate her true feelings with more liberty than an elected official. But Rep. Patrick Murphy is sure in politics, and he, too, leaves both Clinton and Obama in the dust when it comes to us. Watch how easily and authoritatively he responds to the charge that open gays in the military would destroy unit cohesion by saying the very notion is an insult to him and to the military.

The lesson here was stated best by a president who didn't have to deal with gay equality. President Clinton, President Obama, when it comes to gay rights, the only thing you have to fear is fear itself.

Gay Marriage in Ten Years?

The epoch of the cultural wedge issue is ending, says Democratic political analyst Ruy Teixeira, in his new report, "The Coming End of the Culture Wars" (PDF). And gay marriage will soon lose its political potency. It's baked in the demographic cake.

That's because of generational change, as culturally progressive Millennial voters surge into the electorate. It's also, more immediately, because of the decline in the number of white working-class voters. And the fastest growing religious group is not evangelicals but seculars, who tend to be very culturally progressive.

Of course, this does not mean that conflicts over gay marriage will die out overnight. There will continue to be attempts on the state level to keep gay marriage illegal through the initiative process. Such initiatives have met with considerable success, including the recent passage of Proposition 8 in the progressive state of California. Yet a simple regression model developed by Nate Silver suggests that such initiatives have been losing support at the rate of roughly 2 percentage points a year. This time trend, combined with a couple of other variables on state religiosity, indicates that California would fail to support such an initiative by next year and only a handful of Deep South states should be expected to support gay marriage bans by 2016.

Fights will continue on the gay marriage issue, but the outcome of these struggles is not really in doubt looking 10 years or so down the road. And neither is the decreasing usefulness of this issue to the conservative culture warriors.

Public Relations

I guess I am just a sex-negative prude, but I really do not think that soliciting more porn industry support for marriage equality efforts is a great idea. I guess it is nice that NickYoungXXX-dot-com supports the cause and all, but the Maggie Gallagher press release kind of writes itself. And I really don't think we are going to win over any moms in Sherman Oaks with a porn-funded campaign of artsy NO H8 photos.

This whole thing is kind of silly, but it does illustrate a real problem in California. It seems like just about everybody out here has his or her own "grass roots" organization dedicated to overturning Prop 8. There is a real incentive for those groups to do outrageous stuff, because the ones who do the most outrageous stuff will stand out in a crowded field. That means attention that should be focused on nice boring gay couples will be diverted to Mormon-bashing or porn-industry fundraising or Perez Hilton.

American Consecretions … Global Implications

It doesn't matter if you attend religious services weekly or if you have fallen away, if you're atheist or agnostic, if you think religion is the opiate of the people or the road to peace - established religion in America is an important force.

So when the bishops of the Episcopal Church voted this week to affirm gay clergy, it was an important move.

Ever since 2003, when the openly gay Gene Robinson was consecrated as a bishop, the 77-million member Anglican communion - the worldwide body of which the Episcopal Church is a part - has been threatened with schism.

Three years ago, there was a moratorium on future elevation of gay bishops until the issue could be more carefully considered. The gay Episcopal group Integrity says that this week's vote effectively ends the ban, though others say that it just affirmed what was already the case, that gays and lesbians are a full part of the Episcopal Church.

Last month, conservative breakaway churches in the U.S. formed their own Anglican group aligned with more conservative South American and African diocese. Called the Anglican Church in North America, they have a paltry 100,000 members compared with 2 million Episcopalians - yet if the international Anglican groups choose to align with them instead, that could change.

For now, however, their absence has led to a more liberal Episcopal Church. A committee this week voted that the Episcopal Church should also permit the blessing of same-sex couples, though the full body won't vote on it until later this week. When it came to testifying in favor of the measure, 50 people did so - only six testified against it.

All of this might seem like inside baseball to you if you're not Episcopalian, even more so if you're not Christian or not religious at all.

But it IS important to all of us who are gay and lesbian, for a couple reasons.

First, the Episcopal Church is seen as the canary in the coal mine by other mainline Protestant Churches. They are waiting to see if accepting gays and lesbians as full members of the church will lead to a breaking away from the international church, or whether different views will be able to co-exist happily.

If the Anglican fellowship survives with an inclusive Episcopal Church, it might lead other denominations - Lutherans, Presbyterians - to follow the example of the United Church of Christ and become fully inclusive of gays and lesbians as well.

And once all Mainline Protestant churches start approving of gay marriage, it will be very difficult for politicians and anti-marriage advocates to make a religious argument against gay marriage, since it will be even more clear that not all denominations agree on this issues.

Secondly, however, the entire issue points out something that is easy for us American gays and lesbians to ignore: the rights (or lack thereof) of gays and lesbians internationally has an effect on us here at home.

There is the threat of a schism because gays and lesbians in many parts of South America and Africa (South Africa being the notable, progressive exception) lag behind their American counterparts when it comes to how they are viewed by their societies. If gays and lesbians were seen as nearly equal in those parts of the world, we would have more rights in the U.S. now.

That is, mainline churches would have accepted us already - which would lead to more pressure on politicians - which would lead to a quicker change in our laws.

Our rights at home are affected by gay and lesbian rights abroad.

A gay rights battle in one place - whether that place is within the Episcopal Church or in a city in Africa - affects gay rights in every other place.

We will not have full equality here until gays and lesbians have equality everywhere.