From
The Economist:
Although California's major pollsters reckon the gap is closing,
they have never found a majority of residents in favor of same-sex
marriage. Whites are evenly divided on the subject, whereas Latinos
are opposed and blacks are fiercely opposed. February's primary
election suggests turnout among both minority groups will be high
this November.
It's altogether possible that a huge African-American turnout
for Obama (who believes marriage is only between a man and a woman,
just like the wording of the ballot initiative) could doom marriage
equality in the nation's most populous state. But that's a scenario
you won't hear discussed by Obama's LGBT supporters.
More. Since one commenter charges that my
remarks about Obama's views on same-sex marriage are wrong, here
are some facts:
Obama says: "I do not support gay marriage. Marriage
has religious and social connotations, and I consider marriage to
be between a man and a woman." (From the Human Rights Campaign's
2008 Presidential questionnaire)
Proposed California marriage amendment says: "Only
marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in
California."
Furthermore. Reader "avee" predicts:
Obama says he is against the CA marriage amendment [sic], but he
also says that he is against gay marriage because marraige can only
be between a man and woman. Expect his anti-gay-marriage quote to
be reproduced in ads in the African-American media by amendment
supporters before the election.
Actually, Obama apparently has not come out in
opposition of the amendment, unlike GOP Gov. Schwarzenegger. From
the
San Francisco Chronicle:
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the likely Democratic presidential
nominee, supports civil unions and equal rights for same-sex
couples, but he has said repeatedly that marriage itself should be
reserved for a man and a woman.
With an amendment outlawing same-sex marriage on the California
ballot in November, Obama will probably be called to defend his
carefully nuanced position when he campaigns in the state.
McCain, regrettably, endorsed the state amendment while
continuing to oppose a federal amendment, but one would certainly
expect more-much more- from Obama, who is and will be receiving
droves of gay dollars and gay votes, and the adoration of LGBT
activists throughout the land.
More still. It's now on the ballot. And it's
unclear whether same-sex marriages performed over the next five
months would be nullified if the amendment passes. Also, New York
State's recent executive order instructing state agencies to
recognized same-sex marriages performed elsewhere is being challenged.