Bad news: Support for California's anti-gay marriage Prop 8 is picking up steam:
Likely California voters overall now favor passage of Proposition 8 by a five-point margin, 47 percent to 42 percent. Ironically, a CBS 5 poll eleven days prior found a five-point margin in favor of the measure's opponents.
One reason is the success of this anti-gay marriage ad showing San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom proclaiming same-sex marriage is here to stay "whether you like it or not."
It's not lost yet, but this is bad news, especially since the parallel Obama surge isn't counteracting Prop 8's growing support. It's quite possible Obama will be the next president, but that all three anti-gay marriage state initiatives (California, Florida and Arizona) will pass. Given that most of the national LGBT activist groups have made the election of Obama their number 1 priority, with the lion's share of their efforts aimed at getting out the vote, for Obama, and raising money, for Obama, a loss in California (especially, since it will roll back marriage equality) will be telling.
But then again, the beltway LGBTers chose to focus their efforts on electing Kerry/Edwards four years ago (even though Kerry/Edwards supported state amendments to ban gay marriage), and they seem to have learned nothing. Okay, that's probably unfair. Since their goal is maximizing their own power and influence in a hoped-for Democratic administration, from their viewpoint their priorities make perfect sense, for them.
More. Reader Casey submitted this telling comment:
"[A]s somebody who has been working against Prop. 8 since months before the ruling went down, raising money, recruiting volunteers, educating voters and praying desperate prayers, I don't want to hear [another commenter's] nonsense about "we only have two viable choices." I've spent years listening to gays talk about how gay issues are the most important thing to vote on, that my status as a Republican is an abomination because the Democrats are so much better on gay issues... and yet, here we are, in the fight of our political lives to defend our right to marry in the largest state of the nation-the ULTIMATE gay issue-and those same gays are MIA, too busy giving their time, energy and money to Obama to do what needs to be done in CA.
"Being behind in the polls wasn't inevitable-we were ahead for a long time-but now the fact that their side has out fund-raised us by $10 million, the fact that they can call on thousands of committed people to go door to door when we can barely get bodies to our phone banks, and yes, the fact that they just want it more than we do is proving out, and now they're ahead, with another ad coming down the pipe that's going to hit us in the throat. Yeah, I said it-they want it more-and if that doesn't change, tangibly, now, we're going to lose this thing.
"Gays have a third choice in 2008; say to hell with the presidential election-Obama is no savior for the gays, and McCain no threat-and get 100% behind the No on 8 campaign. But no-our national organizations had to pretend the presidential election mattered for us this year, and for that, we might just all pay dearly, for a long time to come."
Furthermore. Reader Jake responds to those who charge that criticizing the decision to focus national LGBT resources and labor on electing Obama reflects a pre-emptive blaming of President Obama for Prop 8's passage:
I'm thinking that there will be far more anti-gay blacks and Hispanics coming to the polls this year to advance the "change we've been waiting for" because of the get out the vote efforts of Obama/Biden and the California, Arizona and Florida's Democratic party. I'm kind of surprised that you don't think that's possible.