Tucker Carlson has the top-rated show during prime time on Fox News. The message here to Fox viewers is clear — welcome gays as part of the coalition — and a huge break from years past, before marriage was a settled issue.
.@eScarry breaks down why so many LGBTs are expected to vote for @realDonaldTrump in November. pic.twitter.com/NGHzumeo94— LogCabinRepublicans (@LogCabinGOP) September 17, 2020
5 Comments for “Gays for Trump Make Their Case”
posted by Jorge on
The 45% of gay men figure Tucker Carlson cites is unreliable. It came from a survey by a private company (a social app company if I am not mistaken) of its own consumers. Among other things, I would expect such a survey to skew white, and for all I know it’s the 4Chan of Grindr. That makes it unrepresentative of the country as a whole. And that’s before we get to the difference between surveys and polls. Of course Carlson wouldn’t have wanted to ignore it, but I’m disappointed he fell for it.
At least his guest says “Democratic” instead of “Democrat.”
posted by Juvenalis on
All polls are conducted by private companies. You think the government conducts most polls? Hornet is not the “4Chan of Grindr”, it’s not at all some “white” app, you are just projecting your own ignorance. Since by your admission you obviously don’t know what you are talking about, why are you pontificating such rubbish? This was not a random online poll anyone could vote in or ‘game’, it just happened to recruit from among app users of an app used by queer men. Hornet polled ‘queer men’ all around the world.
Among the queer men in the USA, 45% support Trump, 51% support Biden, in DEM vs. GOP 2020 head-to-head matchup. The poll is no less reliable than any other poll. There is no difference between “poll” and “survey”, both words can refer to the same things, depending on the context.
Under pressure from BLM lunatics, Grindr stupidly removed its “ethnicity” filter just this summer. Hornet has always been more ‘diverse’ liberal PC app, and advertised as such…the fact that they polled “queer men” which can include other groups than gay men is yet further evidence. Trump probably won just among gay men…
Using an app of queer men makes it unrepresentative of queer men? Do you have better idea as to how you would track down several thousand queer men across the country and around the world in order to poll? Is there some other database of queer men maintained (for what purpose?!) Traditional landline pollsters just keep calling random old people and asking “Hi, are you a queer man?” Stupid lame criticism because you don’t like the result; a result which is actually not that surprising…
posted by Jorge on
All polls are conducted by private companies.
Permit me to educate you. Actually, I’m not asking permission, so if you don’t want to be educated, just don’t read further.
A scientific poll requires the following:
1) A random sample
2) The sample is done in a way that makes it representative of the general public.
Polls but organizations such as Gallup and Rasmussen are done by the polling organization making a phone call to individuals selected at random. The list of individuals is generated from a list that is similar in composition to the general public. (Usually publicly available information.) The main error in sampling these days is that not everyone owns cell phones.
So here, first of all, it is highly, highly unlikely that this is a random sample. I do not believe owners of social ap cites collect the phone numbers of their customers, so that means there was no opportunity to call them. Emailing customers to ask them to respond to a survey is not a random sample, it is a self-selected sample, and that skews the results.
Here we do not have a survey of a group that is representative of the general public. It is limited to users of a specific product. It would be like Good Housekeeping calling from its customer list and publicizing its results as if they represented the country as a whole. That is a problem because there are substantial differences between people who subscribe to Good Housekeeping and people who do not. The same is true here.
This supposed survey has some interesting uses when you compare such things as country by country results. But any suggestion that it shows that 45% of gay men in the United States support Donald Trump for president is garbage.
posted by Tom Scharbach on
Republican candidates for President won a significant minority of the LGBT vote in all recent elections: Bush 25% (2000), Bush 23% (2004), McCain 27% (2008), Romney 22% (2012), Trump 14% (2016). I suspect that the Hornet poll is an outlier with serious sampling issues that distort the result. Recent polls using more traditional sampling methods and controls suggest that President Trump may increase the LGBT percentage this election cycle to roughly 20%, which would be more in line with historic patterns. We’ll find out after the votes have been cast and counted.
posted by Tom Scharbach on
But any suggestion that it shows that 45% of gay men in the United States support Donald Trump for president is garbage.
I agree with you. But a more interesting question, given that more mainstream polls suggest that the Hornet survey is an outlier: Does the Hornet survey instead suggest that disproportionate numbers of conservative homosexuals use Hornet rather than other social media and dating sites catering to LGBT folk?
I wonder what percentages would obtain if LGBT folk using other similar social media and dating sites were surveyed — for example, Grindr, Zoosk, Elite Singles, Match, Our Time, Black People Meet, Tinder and so on. It seems to me that the demographics of LGBT folk using each are likely to be significantly different, resulting, accordingly, in different results.