Conservative Support Grows for Marriage Equality

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4 Comments for “Conservative Support Grows for Marriage Equality”

  1. posted by Tom Scharbach on

    Gallop reports “Republicans have consistently been the least likely to favor same-sex marriage, though they have warmed to the idea over the course of Gallup’s trend, growing in support by 33 points,” with GOP support now at 49%.

    The sentence left out of the quote reflects the reality: “Republicans have consistently been the least likely to favor same-sex marriage, though they have warmed to the idea over the course of Gallup’s trend, growing in support by 33 points. Since 2017, however, their views have remained stable, ranging from 44% to 49%.

    If you look at the graph in the Gallup article, that reality is clear: Republican support was 48% in 2017, then dipped, and now has come back to 2017 levels with a slight uptick to 49%. In a word, Republican support has “remained stable”.

    That is true, of course, of support among both Independents and Democrats. The level of support in both groups has “remained stable” over the last several years, with upticks and downticks, just as is the case with Republicans.

    Accordingly, I wouldn’t read too much into this particular poll, just as I cautioned about reading too much into the polls showing downticks last year.

    I think that this paragraph from the Gallup article better reflects the long-term reality:

    “Still, tracking Americans’ evolution on the issue has been a fascinating shift to observe; their changing views on this matter are one of the most notable shifts in public opinion Gallup has measured in recent decades. Support for recognizing gay marriages has grown since the court’s decision brought the issue to a close. Future Gallup measures will determine if the current two-thirds of Americans who support same-sex marriage is the ceiling, or if there is further growth in the coming decades.”

    Over the next few decades, as older Americans die off and the population shifts to a younger demographic (who are more likely to support marriage equality), we will slowly see a change from “two thirds”, perhaps to as high as 75-80% approval. At some point, though, we will reach a ceiling. Conservative religionists are not going to embrace marriage equality any time soon. In a century, perhaps, but not soon.

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  2. posted by Tom Scharbach on

    Brad Polumbo writes: “Most political analysts agree that gay marriage is increasingly a settled issue in the Republican Party. Republican US President Donald Trump made history as the first American president to enter office supportive of same-sex marriage rights.

    The Republican National Committee didn’t get the President’s “gay supportive” memo, apparently.

    Or maybe they did get the White House memo, but it wasn’t “gay supportive”, for fear of alienating conservative Christians.

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