California lawmakers on Tuesday became the first in the country
to approve a
bill allowing full same-sex marriages. Now come the real battles.
Gov. Arnold is under big-time conservative pressure to veto the
measure. That would be a shame. But even if he does allow it to
become law, California voters will likely face two ballot
initiatives next year, to ban gay marriage, or to ban both gay
marriage and domestic partnerships.
The betting money, unfortunately, is that voters will keep DPs
but scrap marriage equality. Nowhere have voters, to date, failed
to ban gay marriage when given the chance, and when initiatives
have included DPs, they've been banned as well.
The worst case scenario: voters scrap existing domestic
partnerships, which in California confer virtually all state rights
and benefits associated with marriage.
In 2000, California voters roundly approved Prop.
22, which altered the Family Code to limit marriage to a man
and a woman, by a vote of 61.2 to 38.8, and the legality of that measure
is now in the state courts. If there's a Schwarzenegger veto, he'll
probably cite the voters' expressed opinion. Coming up, we'll see
how things go when a full-blown constitutional ban is on the
initiative table.
We know that relying on liberal courts to push through marriage
equality is a recipe for backlash. But will a liberal state
legislature's approval fare better with voters?
Update: Gay Patriot
blogs:
I'm torn between the will of the people and the will of the
elected representatives. I think this is an important step. But
what do the 61% of Californians who voted against same-sex marriage
in the year 2000 think about their elected representatives? I don't
know. I admit I struggle with it.
And one of his commenters, Joe, writes:
I fear their move is an overreach-one that will be repudiated at
the polls (initiative process). It was a purely symbolic,
unnecessary move because they already passed strong civil unions
last year. Led by Democrats, they did it basically to say "screw
you" to conservatives (and California voters) who don't like gay
marriage. I would rather they hadn't done it at this time. I say
this as a longtime supporter of gay marriage. Most of society (in
your state) has to be on board with you, for the new law or
institution to work.
If things turn out badly regarding next year's referendum, we'll
recognizes these, in hindsight, as valid concerns.