First published on December 24, 2003, in the Chicago Free
Press. This version has been slightly revised.
In most ways, 2003 seemed to be a year of accomplishments: The
Supreme Court struck down 13 state sodomy laws; the Massachusetts
Supreme Judicial Court struck down the state's prohibition on
same-sex marriage; Wal-Mart, the nation's largest employer, added
sexual orientation to its non-discrimination clause; and "Queer
Eye" became an instant, widely discussed hit.
But 2004 looks far more like a mixed bag. On the positive side,
same-sex couples seem poised to be able to marry in Massachusetts
some time in 2004. New Jersey seems certain to adopt some sort of
civil union legislation. MTV - without Showtime - will finally
launch a long-delayed gay-oriented cable channel. More large and
mid-sized companies will add domestic partner benefits and more
Gay/Straight Alliances will be formed in high schools.
Also on the positive side, industrial productivity started what
appears to be a sustained growth. The Dow broke the 10,000 barrier
again and seems likely to go further. Inflation is likely to
continue at a gratifyingly low level. Saddam Hussein's capture
secures the end of his Stalinesque dictatorship, weakens the
opposition to a democratic Iraq and hastens the reduction of
American forces there. These are things to be grateful for and
President Bush deserves some credit for them.
But those good things about the economy and foreign affairs also
mean that President Bush, the least gay-supportive candidate, seems
likely to win reelection in November. Bush continues to support
"Don't Ask, Don't Tell" despite its obvious failure and injustice.
He opposes gay marriage and probably supports a constitutional
amendment prohibiting it. He seems more concerned about AIDS in the
rest of the world than in the United States. While he urges
"tolerance" for gays, he seems unable to say a single word in our
favor.
Not only is Bush likely to be re-elected, but Republicans seem
likely to increase their majority in the Senate by 2-3 seats and in
the House by 6-8 seats, making non-discrimination legislation and
repeal of the military gay ban non-starters.
To be sure, the most plausible Democratic presidential
contenders win no prizes, but at least they are better on gay
issues. All say they support some sort of same-sex civil unions.
And the leading contender, Howard Dean, is likely to be the most
open in support of civil unions since he has a record to justify.
All except the evasive General Clark explicitly favor an end to
"Don't Ask, Don't Tell," although they do not bother to explain how
they could push repeal legislation through a Republican
Congress.
On the other hand, none of the plausible Democratic contenders
favors gay marriage any more than President Bush does, although all
say they oppose a constitutional amendment prohibiting it and Dean
advocates federal entitlements for couples with civil unions. The
key question then is, do they support the Defense of Marriage Act
with its discrimination against any legally married gay couples?
Only Dean and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry oppose DOMA.
But even if the others support DOMA's stipulation that the
Constitution's "Full Faith and Credit" clause should not force
recalcitrant states to recognize out-of-state gay marriages, what
argument can they offer in favor of the federal government itself
discriminating against gay couples? If they support federal
non-discrimination laws, which they say they do, on what principle
do they think the government itself should discriminate? Probably
the principle of "I want to win."
I said Bush "probably" supports a constitutional amendment
prohibiting gay marriage. Who knows? In his December 16 interview
with the ill-prepared Diane Sawyer, Bush said "If necessary, I will
support a constitutional amendment," "We may need a Constitutional
amendment" and "It (the Defense of Marriage Act) may be undermined
at this point."
The words to notice are: "if necessary," "we may need" and "may
be undermined." Everything is in a tentative mode. Bush certainly
sounded as if he would have no trouble supporting an anti-gay
marriage amendment, but he avoided making a specific endorsement or
saying what would trigger an endorsement. It is a complicated game
of signals Bush is playing, trying to suggest something to everyone
while avoiding anything specific.
Most likely, Bush is waiting to see (a) where public opinion
jells, and (b) if the election looks so close that he needs to
generate religious conservative zeal on his behalf. Ironically,
that could well mean that the more likely Bush seems to win, the
less pressure he will feel to endorse the amendment. Nobody said
politics was simple.
Whatever happens in national politics, we can look forward to
gains at the state and local level as more jurisdictions approve
non-discrimination laws or domestic partners registries. More
important in the long run, we can expect more visibility in the
field of popular entertainment and more support in the private
business sector as more companies adopt favorable employment
practices and/or initiate marketing outreach to gays. So our
progress toward equality will continue despite the ups and downs of
national politics.