The Prospects for 2004

First published on December 24, 2003, in the Chicago Free Press. This version has been slightly revised.

In most ways, 2003 seemed to be a year of accomplishments: The Supreme Court struck down 13 state sodomy laws; the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court struck down the state's prohibition on same-sex marriage; Wal-Mart, the nation's largest employer, added sexual orientation to its non-discrimination clause; and "Queer Eye" became an instant, widely discussed hit.

But 2004 looks far more like a mixed bag. On the positive side, same-sex couples seem poised to be able to marry in Massachusetts some time in 2004. New Jersey seems certain to adopt some sort of civil union legislation. MTV - without Showtime - will finally launch a long-delayed gay-oriented cable channel. More large and mid-sized companies will add domestic partner benefits and more Gay/Straight Alliances will be formed in high schools.

Also on the positive side, industrial productivity started what appears to be a sustained growth. The Dow broke the 10,000 barrier again and seems likely to go further. Inflation is likely to continue at a gratifyingly low level. Saddam Hussein's capture secures the end of his Stalinesque dictatorship, weakens the opposition to a democratic Iraq and hastens the reduction of American forces there. These are things to be grateful for and President Bush deserves some credit for them.

But those good things about the economy and foreign affairs also mean that President Bush, the least gay-supportive candidate, seems likely to win reelection in November. Bush continues to support "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" despite its obvious failure and injustice. He opposes gay marriage and probably supports a constitutional amendment prohibiting it. He seems more concerned about AIDS in the rest of the world than in the United States. While he urges "tolerance" for gays, he seems unable to say a single word in our favor.

Not only is Bush likely to be re-elected, but Republicans seem likely to increase their majority in the Senate by 2-3 seats and in the House by 6-8 seats, making non-discrimination legislation and repeal of the military gay ban non-starters.

To be sure, the most plausible Democratic presidential contenders win no prizes, but at least they are better on gay issues. All say they support some sort of same-sex civil unions. And the leading contender, Howard Dean, is likely to be the most open in support of civil unions since he has a record to justify. All except the evasive General Clark explicitly favor an end to "Don't Ask, Don't Tell," although they do not bother to explain how they could push repeal legislation through a Republican Congress.

On the other hand, none of the plausible Democratic contenders favors gay marriage any more than President Bush does, although all say they oppose a constitutional amendment prohibiting it and Dean advocates federal entitlements for couples with civil unions. The key question then is, do they support the Defense of Marriage Act with its discrimination against any legally married gay couples? Only Dean and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry oppose DOMA.

But even if the others support DOMA's stipulation that the Constitution's "Full Faith and Credit" clause should not force recalcitrant states to recognize out-of-state gay marriages, what argument can they offer in favor of the federal government itself discriminating against gay couples? If they support federal non-discrimination laws, which they say they do, on what principle do they think the government itself should discriminate? Probably the principle of "I want to win."

I said Bush "probably" supports a constitutional amendment prohibiting gay marriage. Who knows? In his December 16 interview with the ill-prepared Diane Sawyer, Bush said "If necessary, I will support a constitutional amendment," "We may need a Constitutional amendment" and "It (the Defense of Marriage Act) may be undermined at this point."

The words to notice are: "if necessary," "we may need" and "may be undermined." Everything is in a tentative mode. Bush certainly sounded as if he would have no trouble supporting an anti-gay marriage amendment, but he avoided making a specific endorsement or saying what would trigger an endorsement. It is a complicated game of signals Bush is playing, trying to suggest something to everyone while avoiding anything specific.

Most likely, Bush is waiting to see (a) where public opinion jells, and (b) if the election looks so close that he needs to generate religious conservative zeal on his behalf. Ironically, that could well mean that the more likely Bush seems to win, the less pressure he will feel to endorse the amendment. Nobody said politics was simple.

Whatever happens in national politics, we can look forward to gains at the state and local level as more jurisdictions approve non-discrimination laws or domestic partners registries. More important in the long run, we can expect more visibility in the field of popular entertainment and more support in the private business sector as more companies adopt favorable employment practices and/or initiate marketing outreach to gays. So our progress toward equality will continue despite the ups and downs of national politics.

The Defeatists’ Siren Song.

The en banc blog
makes mincemeat out of the New York Times's claim of "strong support" for a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. In fact, the reported figure of 55 percent favoring an amendment shows a country pretty evenly divided. And by any measure, it's less than the overwhelming majority needed to push an amendment through Congress and three-fourths of the state legislatures.

This, coupled with the Times's mangling of the Bush quote (see below) to purport that the president is now supporting such an amendment (he's not, but says he might "if necessary"), begs the question of why the NYT wants its readers to think the news is much worse than it is. Recall that the National Gay & Lesbian Task Force also is telling its followers that Bush supports the anti-gay Federal Marriage Amendment now before Congress (wrong again - while Bush "if necessary" might endorse some amendment, he also indicated he favors the rights of states to offer civil unions and domestic partnerships, which the proposed FMA would ban).

One explanation: the liberal-left would rather (a) demonize Bush and (b) luxuriate in victimhood than deal with the practical politics of lobbying an administration they despise -- even to the point of declaring defeat while others choose to engage the battle.

Can’t Trust the “Times.”

In its Sunday, Dec. 21 story on gay marriage, the New York Times reports, in referring to President Bush's comments during an interview with ABC's Diane Sawyer:

But last week Mr. Bush for the first time voiced his support, saying, "I will support a constitutional amendment which would honor marriage between a man and a woman, codify that."

Well, not exactly. The Times chopped two words out of Bush's quote: "If necessary, I will support..." Bush also said during his interview with ABC's Sawyer, "We may need a constitutional amendment."

Nuance is important when parsing a politician's emerging stance on a contentious, politically charged issue, and the New York Times surely knows this. Bush may, in fact, come out in support of a constitutional amendment, but he has not yet done so, and that's important.

If it looks like he'll cruise to an easy re-election, Bush won't want to risk seeming "intolerant" to swing voters (and, in truth, he has never shown any desire to play this card). But if the race tightens and he needs to firm up his right-wing base, who knows. But misreporting the facts, as the Times did -- along with many gay activists -- doesn't help those who are actually working to keep Bush from doing what the Times has reported he already did. [Hat tip to Andrew Sullivan.com]

More Recent Postings

12/14/03 - 12/20/03

Unhinged.

The always shrill National Gay & Lesbian Task Force responded to President Bush's triangulating comments on gay marriage (see yesterday's posting) with this bit of off-the-wall hyperbole:

Bush's Support of the Federal Marriage Amendment Deemed a Declaration of War on Gay America. Crossing this line in the sand will provoke civil disobedience across country, says National Gay and Lesbian Task Force.

If NGLTF's leadership wants to personify infantile leftism, that's their business, but when they misreport to their members on matters of fact, it's serious. Bush did say it might become necessary, in his view, to pass an amendment that would "honor" or codify marriage as between one man and one woman. For that, he should be criticized. But Bush did not support the current wording of the proposed Federal Marriage Amendment (FMA) now before Congress. In fact, as I noted yesterday, he pointedly left the door open for state-recognized civil unions and domestic partnerships, which the FMA would also ban, thus angering the religious right.

Think about that -- a conservative GOP president who has no problem with states recognizing civil unions for gay couples. Then ask yourself if this amounts to declaring "war" on gays.

It's worth remembering that just a few months ago NGLTF's Matt Foreman stood with black ministers who are leaders of the anti-gay Alliance for Marriage, at the 40th anniversary civil rights rally in Washington, and in his remarks failed to even mention gay marriage -- as Dale Carpenter noted in his syndicated column.

The Washington Post gets the story right:

President Bush said for the first time yesterday that he could support a constitutional amendment opposing gay marriage, but he drew criticism from some conservatives for leaving the door open to state recognition of civil unions. "

He appeared to leave open the possibility of supporting the right of states to confer some form of legal recognition on same-sex couples, such as civil unions, which are opposed by many Christian conservatives.

But for the Bush-haters at NGLTF, the facts don't matter as long as you have a chance to incite the passions of your donors. Just like over at the religious right groups that are their mirror opposites.

Hinged.

Andrew Sullivan writes:

"hitching the Constitution to a position that is fast losing popular support [banning gay marriage] seems to me to be an abuse of that document. It should be amended only when there's an overwhelming consensus on a strictly Constitutional matter -- not when the country is deeply split on a social and cultural issue. "

The gay issue does strange things to presidents. Clinton said all the right things -- and then enacted and supported some of the most anti-gay measures ever (DOMA, "Don't ask, Don't Tell"). Bush still cannot even say the words 'gay' or 'lesbian' but hasn't done anything that damaging to gay men and women; and, by his ambivalence, might help kill an anti-gay Constitutional amendment. Go figure.

Bush Whacked by Gay Left / Religious Right.

President Bush is the target of critical missives by both gay and anti-gay activists over his comments to ABC's Diane Sawyer Tuesday night, when he was asked about his position on a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. The president said he supports an amendment "which would honor marriage between a man and a woman." But he added, "The position of this administration is that whatever legal arrangements people want to make, they're allowed to make, so long as it's embraced by the state or at the state level."

Just what this means is not entirely clear (surprise, surprise). Sadly, the president has gone on record in support of amending the Constitution to prevent gay marriage in some fashion, although the fact that he said he favors an amendment to "honor" marriage between a man and a woman, rather than an amendment that stipulates marriage as between a man and a woman, could provide some wiggle room.

And he fell far short of endorsing the proposed Federal Marriage Amendment now before Congress, whose language is widely interpreted as barring states from recognizing not only same-sex marriages, but also civil unions and domestic partnerships. This reticence on Bush's part was recognized by the anti-gays. In the words of the Family Research Council's Tony Perkins:

"I'm very concerned about his additional comments which seem to suggest the definition of marriage, which pre-dates western civilization and the United States Constitution, can be redefined at the state level. This sounds as though the administration would support civil unions which are counterfeits of the institution of marriage. The President's remarks also undermine state legislators who are fighting to protect the institution of marriage in states like Massachusetts."

But an opposite view (though similar tone) was expressed by Winnie Stachelberg of the Human Rights Campaign, the Washington-based lesbigay lobby:

"We are gravely concerned by reports that the president would join in these attacks on American families. -- The amendment pending in Congress would go much further than defining marriage as between a man and a woman. It could strip away any legal protection for millions of hard-working, tax-paying Americans and their children, including the right to Social Security survivor benefits, to the right to inherit a partner's property without heavy tax penalties, even the right to visit a loved one in the hospital."

But Bush clearly has not come out in support of the Federal Marriage Amendment now before Congress, and indicated he'd be against stripping states of their ability to recognize civil unions and domestic partnerships, which is why the anti-gays are so unhappy. In fact, the limited amendment he suggests he'd favor could be a complete non-starter with the religoius right, derailing their whole effort.

On another point: HRC can't seem to get away from the view that marriage is primarily about benefits -- ultimately not a strong argument, as Dale Carpenter explains in his recent column, Bad Arguments for Gay Marriage:

Very few people marry in order to experience the magic of filing a joint income tax return. They marry because, in our tradition and history, marriage is the way couples in a community signal the depth of their commitment to one another. Their family and peers reciprocate by supporting and celebrating that commitment, which in turn reinforces it. Everyone understands the stakes.

But this is something that the "rights" obsessed HRC doesn't, in fact, seem to understand.

More Recent Postings

12/07/03 - 12/13/03

“Lie & Hide” and the Military Closet.

Two generals and an admiral, all retired, are among the most senior uniformed officers to criticize the "don't ask, don't tell" policy for gays serving their country in the military, the New York Times reports. In a joint statement, they called the policy ineffective and charged it "undermines the military's core values: truth, honor, dignity, respect and integrity."

Oh, and by the way, all three are now openly gay.

In terms of politics, Bush clearly won't touch the "gays in the military" issue before the election. But in a second term, he'd have the clout to change the policy if he were of a mind to do so, and Don Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney have given indications in the past that they'd be supportive (while Colin Powell, who favors the ban, may be gone). However, it's certain that Howard Dean would have even less clout than Clinton had with the military (and not just over capitulation in Iraq, but the whole "how I spent months skiing while enjoying my bad-back draft deferment" thing), and would ignite a firestorm if he tried to alter the ban.

Bad Arguments for Gay Marriage

With the country still simmering after the Massachusetts court decision that could extend marriage to gay couples, it's time to separate the chaff from the wheat in the arguments for gay marriage.

There are several good arguments for gay marriage. Among these are the stability and commitment it would encourage in gay relationships and in gay life generally. That would benefit everybody, gay and straight.

There are also some bad arguments against gay marriage. An example is the selective logic of the procreation argument, which holds that nobody is required to procreate in order to marry, except gay couples, who can't procreate, and so must unfortunately be excluded.

We should acknowledge, however, that we ourselves have been guilty of making some bad arguments for gay marriage. Here are three:

Bad Argument #1: It's All About the Benefits.

The most common argument for gay marriage emphasizes the harm that's done to gay couples by excluding them from the protections and benefits of marriage. Among these are tax benefits, settled property division and presumed child visitation and/or custody upon death or divorce, testimonial privileges in court, hospital visitation, and health benefits extended by private employers or governments to the spouses of workers. Someone has tallied over 1,000 marital benefits and privileges. Give us all these goodies, too, the argument goes.

Benefits are indeed part of the story about why it's wrong to exclude gay couples from marriage, but they are not the most important part of it. Some of the benefits of marriage can be replicated - at some cost and inconvenience to the couple - through wills, trusts, and contracts.

Emphasizing the riches of marriage misses the richness of marriage. Very few people marry in order to experience the magic of filing a joint income tax return. They marry because, in our tradition and history, marriage is the way couples in a community signal the depth of their commitment to one another. Their family and peers reciprocate by supporting and celebrating that commitment, which in turn reinforces it. Everyone understands the stakes.

If the benefits were all that mattered, civil unions would be an adequate substitute. Yet, "We're unionized," simply does not have the powerful social significance of, "We're married." So let's argue for the benefits, but let's not stop there.

Bad Argument #2: We Have a 'Right' to Marry.

Another common argument for gay marriage is more legalistic, and less functional, than the first. It tends to emphasize the discrimination in the marriage exclusion, holding that gays have just as much "right" to marry as heterosexuals.

The problem is that, while a reasonable legal argument can indeed be made for gay marriage, it is unlikely to persuade anyone who isn't already convinced that gay marriage is a good idea or at least not a bad idea. Legal conclusions follow, they do not create, arguments on the merits of an issue.

Another problem with the rights argument is that it tends to channel our efforts toward courts, where the issue will not ultimately be won, and away from legislatures and from the hearts of our fellow citizens, where it must be won. The comparatively easy work of writing briefs for judges and their clerks will not substitute for the hard work of persuading the people we're right.

Bad Argument #3: Gay Marriage Will Revolutionize Society, and That's Good.

This perspective was recently expressed by sociologist Kersti Yllo, a professor at Wheaton College in Massachusetts. "We need to acknowledge [conservatives'] argument that gay and lesbian marriages have the potential to change civilization as we know it," says Yllo. "And that will be a good thing."

There are at least three versions of this argument. One holds that heterosexuals have screwed up marriage and gays will do a better job. But gay couples, I predict, will suffer divorce rates just as high as their straight counterparts. There will be instances of gay spousal abuse and infidelity, just as there are for straight couples. Gay marriage is not the cause of the problems with marriage, but neither is it a solution.

A second version of the revolution argument maintains that gay marriages will be less "stifling" and perhaps more "open-textured," offering a healthy alternative marital model to straight couples. What is primarily meant by these euphemisms, I think, is that gay male couples will play around more.

I doubt the rate of publicly "open" gay marriages will be very high, for reasons I've offered elsewhere. Further, whatever that rate, I doubt it will have any effect on straight couples because gay couples will comprise a tiny percentage of all marriages and because women will continue to demand monogamy in opposite-sex marriages.

Moreover, if gay marriage did have this "liberating" effect on straight marriage, that would be a good argument against gay marriage. Sexually open relationships are on average less stable and lasting than monogamous ones. Introducing even more instability into opposite-sex marriages would be terrible for the relationships themselves and for the children they often produce.

The third version of the revolution argument holds that gay marriage will undermine traditional gender roles under which wives do housework and husbands make money. Like the better-living-through-adultery fallacy just discussed, this argument assumes a huge effect from a small cause. Besides, gay couples are often not radically different from straight couples in their division of labor. Finally, traditional marital roles have already declined to a great extent.

While Arguments Nos. 1 and 2 are just bad when offered by themselves, Argument No. 3 in all its versions is just plain bad.

“Angels in America,” Revisited.

As publicity over Tony Kushner's play peaks with this week's HBO broadcast, readers might want to take a look back at a review, written by IGF contributing author and editor Walter Olson, of the original Broadway production. The cast may be different, but the observations are still pertinent.

Protecting the Constitution - A True 'Conservative' Agenda.

Here's a new website dedicated to the proposition that conservatives ought to oppose the anti-gay Federal Marriage Amendment now before Congress. It's full of interesting opinion pieces. Check it out.

More Discord on the Right.

Andrew Sullivan's Sunday Washington Post op-ed, "The GOP Divide On Gay Marriage," makes some of the points we've been noting (see Discord on the Right) about how the debate over banning gay marriage is dividing conservatives while uniting liberals -- the opposite of what some conservative strategists (and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist) had expected. Warns Sullivan:

If the president were to endorse the [anti-gay Federal Marriage Amendment], the Republican splits would widen. It would make the position of gay Republicans essentially untenable, and Bush would lose almost all the million gay votes he won in 2000. The Republican Unity Coalition, founded to make sexual orientation a non-issue in the GOP, would fold. The Log Cabin Republicans would refuse to endorse the president. And such a position would be an enormous gift to the Democrats, as gay money, enthusiasm and anger rallied behind their candidate. The amendment would do to the gay community what Proposition 187 did to Latinos in California: alienate them from the GOP for a generation. And it would send a signal to other minorities: The Republicans, at heart, are the party of exclusion, not inclusion.

The Real Reagan.

Columnist Deroy Murdock provides some needed perspective on Ronald Reagan's real AIDS record and views about gays. One mistruth often repeated, that Reagan didn't even mention AIDS until 1987, is firmly put to rest. Another positive sign -- this piece is from the conservative National Review, which apparently feels it's necessary to defend Reagan against "anti-gay" allegations.

Time Warp.

A 7-year-old boy in rural Lafayette, Louisiana, was disciplined by his public school for telling a friend he has two mothers who are gay. It must have come as a shock to the school that the incident triggered national coverage, as in this frontpage Washington Post article, as well as an ACLU lawsuit. Yes, the times are changing -- even in places that time seems to have forgotten.

More Recent Postings

11/30/03 - 12/03/03