Two starkly different but possible futures are emerging. One of
them would foreclose gay marriage for the lifetime of any person
old enough to read this, erecting barrier after barrier to the
recognition of gay couples. The other would mean a long, but
ultimately successful, movement for full marriage rights. This is
the fight of our lives and our elected officials must know
that.
In the worst-case scenario, gay marriages in Massachusetts and
elsewhere will fuel a backlash that results in double and triple
obstacles for us. Already, 38 states have enacted laws banning gay
marriages and refusing to recognize such marriages from other
states. Facing the specter of gay marriages, under this scenario
many states will be stampeded into amending their own state
constitutions.
Far worse, Congress would vote to amend the U.S. Constitution to
ban gay marriages, and perhaps even civil unions and domestic
partnerships to boot That will be followed by ratification efforts
in state after state. The debate over ratification will be vicious,
marked by hateful stereotypes of gays as promiscuous
child-molesters bent on destroying everything good in American
life. In this super-charged atmosphere, hate crimes go up. Other
civil rights measures stall. Worst of all, the amendment is
ratified. Since only 13 states may block any repeal of this
amendment - and we know where they are - the possibility of gay
marriage is ended for our lifetimes.
But that is only one possible future. Here's another.
In the best-case scenario, gay marriages in Massachusetts and
elsewhere demonstrate that same-sex marriage is no threat to
anyone. Straight married couples get on with their lives,
unaffected. Children still have mothers and fathers. There is no
plague of locusts upon the land. Massachusetts accordingly rejects
a state constitutional amendment, either because the legislature
can't muster the votes for a ban or because the people of
Massachusetts vote it down. Either way, the people will have
spoken. Gay marriages in that state will have a democratic
legitimacy no court can confer. For the first time, gay marriage
will have survived its most crucial test, the one in the court of
democratic politics.
The experience of Massachusetts will embolden other states to
start trying gay marriages, or at least civil unions followed
quickly by marriage. State legislators will realize they don't
commit political suicide by voting for it. The momentum gathers.
Still no locusts.
At the federal level, under the best-case scenario, Democrats
find their backbone on this issue after all the support we've given
them over the years and vote to reject a constitutional amendment.
A few principled Republicans, loathe to write what Andrew Sullivan
has called "graffiti" on the Constitution, and truly committed to
federalism, join the Democrats. State experimentation with gay
marriage, free of congressional meddling and federal court fiat, is
allowed to proceed.
The debate over the amendment and over state legislative action,
and the existence of actual gay marriages, force people to think
for the first time about why we would deny a loving, committed
couple a marriage license. Many Americans can't come up with a good
reason. Religious conservative groups, like those running to courts
right now to stop people from marrying in San Francisco, look like
the Grinch Who Stole Matrimony. Gay marriage, perhaps in our
lifetime, is a reality across much of the country.
Neither of these scenarios is foregone. The future is ours to
make. The people of this country are basically decent and fair.
They do not like to shut people out for no good reason. But they
also do not like to be rushed into, or to be forced into, a change
they rightly regard as having fundamental significance. When the
people have time to listen to our pleas, to consider the
consequences, and to make a deliberative choice, equality usually
wins.
But above all, winning the right future will mean making it
plain that stopping an amendment to the U.S. Constitution is
the issue upon which every politician will henceforth be
judged, Democrat or Republican, liberal or conservative. There can
be no "pass" given to any elected official on this issue, no matter
how supportive he or she has been in the past. They must know we
will always remember where they stood on this.
Gay Democrats must make it crystal clear to Democrats and to our
civil-rights "allies" among progressive groups that we consider
stopping this proposed constitutional amendment critically
important. No votes, no money, no time, should be given to any
Democrat who supports a constitutional amendment banning gay
marriage, no matter how many times they've sponsored an employment
non-discrimination bill or a hate crimes law. This means you, too,
John Kerry.
Gay Republicans also must stand up. We have been working to
build some small voice in the GOP for just this moment. We must be
crystal clear that no votes, no money, no time, will be given to
any Republican who supports a constitutional amendment banning gay
marriage, no matter how many times they've cut taxes or made war on
Islamo-fascism. This means you, too, George W. Bush.
Write and call your member of Congress and the White House. Talk
up the issue among your friends, family members, and co-workers,
even those whose support you can usually count on.
On this issue, unlike almost every other issue, no quarter can
be given They are messing with our families now. This fight is for
keeps. We must win it.