First published February 2, 2005, in the Chicago Free Press.
College freshmen's attitudes toward legalized gay unions seem to have been influenced, at least temporarily, by the dire warnings emanating from last fall's Republican presidential campaign and the controversies over state and federal constitutional amendments barring gay marriage.
That, at least, is the most plausible conclusion to draw from a survey of nearly 290,000 college freshmen conducted during freshman orientation last August and September by the Higher Education Research Institute at the University of California, Los Angeles.
Although the annual survey chiefly collects demographic information and education and career plans, it also includes 16 statements about social and academic issues that the freshmen are invited to agree or disagree with. Two of those statements relate to gay unions.
In the fall 2003 survey, 59.4 percent of the freshmen agreed with the statement, "Same-sex couples should have the right to legal marital status." But in the 2004 survey, just released at the end of January, that support fell slightly to 56.7 percent, a decline of 2.7 points.
The language "legal marital status" was originally developed back in 1997 - when the statement was first added to the survey - to delimit the meaning to the legal elements and avoid the religious implications many people have with the word "marriage." Nevertheless, it is possible that some freshmen interpreted the statement to refer to religious marriage and responded accordingly.
The other statement the freshmen were invited to agree or disagree with was, "It is important to have laws prohibiting homosexual relationships." In 2003, barely a quarter (26.1 percent) agreed with that statement. But last fall, support climbed to 29.9 percent, a rise of 3.8 points. That was the largest single change in support for any statement in the survey.
When that statement was added to the survey in 1976, it referred to sodomy laws. Sodomy laws were still in force in a majority of states while gay marriage, civil unions or domestic partnerships were not even a blur on the horizon for most people. But now more than a quarter century later, the statement is undoubtedly interpreted to refer to so-called "defense of marriage" laws or constitutional bans on gay marriage.
And in that light, while it is not encouraging that support for such laws rose almost 4 points in the last year, it is not surprising, and it is in a way encouraging that given the absence of any nationally prominent political or religious figures actually arguing for gay marriage, the change was as small as it was: More than 70 percent of all freshmen still oppose such restrictive laws.
There are two other factors that might contribute to the 2004 loss of support. One is religion. This year's student sample had slightly more Baptists (up by 0.7 points) and Mormons (up 1.0 points), both extremely anti-gay denominations, and 0.6 points fewer members of the United Church of Christ (a liberal denomination).
In addition the sample was 1.9 points less Catholic, and Catholics (unlike that church's hierarchy) tend to be more accepting of gays and gay unions than many Protestant denominations. In fact, support for gay "legal marital status" actually rose slightly in 2004 among freshman men at Catholic schools.
The other factor influencing the results was the polarizing effect that the issues and the rhetoric of the past year's prolonged election season seems to have had on young people as well as adults. Those may have increased unease about gays and lesbians among conservative-leaning moderates.
The number of students describing themselves as politically "middle-of-the road" fell to 46.4 percent, its lowest point in more than 30 years. The percentage describing themselves as "liberal" or "far left" increased 2.5 points to 29.5 percent and the number describing themselves as "conservative" or "far right" increased 1.5 points to 24.1 percent.
If "defense of marriage" laws were taken to be part of the conservative package, and for many they probably were, then the 24.1 percent who are conservative or far right constituted the vast majority of support for those laws. But that also means that almost none of the "middle-of-the road" students supported "defense of marriage" laws - specifically, only one in eight.
One interesting sidelight is that although women have always been more supportive of gays than men have by at least 15 percentage points - and that was true again this year - the decline in support among women was slightly greater this year than among men.
One possible interpretation is that young heterosexual women feel more invested in the idea of marriage than men do and respond more readily to claims that the institution is under attack. This may not be reasonable, but how many fears about gays are?
On other issues: 58.6 percent think colleges should ban racist and sexist speech, but only 43.7 percent think colleges have the right to ban extreme speakers. More than half (53.9 percent) think abortion should be legal but only 37.1 percent think marijuana should be legalized and only 33.2 percent think the death penalty should be abolished.
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Author's note: I have corrected a small statistical error in the original print version.