The Institute for Marriage and Public Policy, a boutique anti-gay marriage operation headed by conservative polemicist Maggie Gallagher, recently released a report which purported to estimate the number of gays and lesbians who would marry if same-sex marriage were legal.
To do this, the authors looked at the number of same-sex couples who had married where same-sex marriage was legal-specifically the Netherlands, Belgium, Canada and the state of Massachusetts. They then calculated the percentage of gays that number represented depending on estimates of the size of the gay population from 1.1 to 5 percent.
They concluded that 1.9 to 4.7 percent of Belgium's gay population had married, 5.9 to 16.7 percent of Massachusetts' gay population and 2.6 to 6.3 percent of Dutch gays had married. Canadian data vary widely from province to province because marriage was legalized at different times.
But as usual with any right-wing "study" about homosexuals, there are problems with both the data and the analyses.
First of all, any report that seriously offers the possibility that only 1 or 2 percent of the population is gay or lesbian is intellectually frivolous.
Second, gay marriage has been legal for only a short time--barely five years in the Netherlands, barely three in Belgium, exactly two years in Massachusetts, and one to thre years in different parts of Canada. That is hardly enough time to give a sense of how many gays would marry once they find the man or woman they want to formally bind their lives with.
Some gays may not have even looked very hard for such a person because the possibility of legally solidifying a relationship was not available. With the availability of gay marriage the whole mental set about dating and developing a relationship changes but it takes time for that change to be absorbed and acted on.
Some couples who have been together for a long time may decide that they do not want to change things, that they are comfortable with how they have arranged their lives up to now and do not feel the need to "make as statement" as they would put it.
Better evidence of the desire for marriage among gays will be the behavior over the next 15-20 years of the generation of gays and lesbians just now coming into adulthood with the possibility of marriage available to them from the beginning.
Third, in both Europe and America, marriage for gays and lesbians offers much less than it does for heterosexuals. For instance, in the U.S. some of the main inducements of marriage are the vast array of federal legal and economic benefits--inheritable Social Security, veterans benefits, partner immigration rights, joint income tax filing, etc.
Those are not available for gay couples in Massachusetts, so pretending that gay and heterosexual marriage offer similar incentives is dishonest.
In European countries that allow gay marriage, most have not allowed gay couples to adopt children or have done so only recently. Yet the joint creation or adoption of children constitutes one of the strongest incentives for marriage. The raising of children as a joint project seems to solidify a relationship as nothing else does and increases the desirability of marriage. Yet that opportunity or incentive has been denied to European gays.
As evidence, there are data from Scandinavia suggesting that among heterosexuals a majority of first children are born to unmarried couples, but that many of those couples did eventually go on to marry after their children were born.
Fourth, although it seems almost too obvious to mention, one of the reasons for heterosexual marriage is the pressure from parents and relatives to "make it legal," or "tie the knot." Unmarried heterosexual couples hear a good deal of that urging. But how many parents or relatives of gays push them to marry their same-sex partner in the same way? Many religious and socially conservative parents and relatives can barely tolerate homosexuality, so they are hardly going to encourage their son or daughter to enter a same-sex marriage. Many gays would be marrying despite their families wishes, not because of them.
Fifth, most heterosexuals are openly heterosexual. But many gays and lesbians are not "out of the closet" in any general sense. Far fewer than half, perhaps barely a quarter are openly gay to all and sundry, so the majority of gays are not in a position to do anything as public as have a state certified marriage.
Finally, keep in mind that some gays are not allowed to marry at all. Gays and lesbians in the U.S. military are not allowed to marry. In most Protestant denominations gay and lesbian clergy may not marry and keep their jobs. Yet heterosexuals in those same positions marry in high numbers.
Are the gay marriage/heterosexual marriage comparisons valid? Of course not.
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Author's note: This version refines language and corrects a few small errors in the print version.

