Opponents of gay marriage have tried a number of arguments, all
of which have failed to end the progress toward the recognition of
gay relationships. Now they're trying out a new one that ties gay
marriage to a miasma of marital and familial decline.
Gay-marriage opponents first argued that same-sex couples could
not be married because the definition of marriage is the
union of a man and a woman. This worked as long as nobody thought
very hard about the issue, but it fails as soon as you realize the
whole argument is over what the definition should include.
Some gay-marriage opponents tried to frighten the public with
negative stereotypes of gays. The problem is that too many
Americans know actual gay people for this to have much effect
anymore.
Next they warned that gay marriage would be the first step down
a slippery slope toward things like polygamy. But this failed to
catch on because there just aren't that many people clamoring for
ten-person marriages. Two is hard enough.
They moved on to children after that, warning that gay couples
couldn't do as good a job as a biological mother and father. This
argument still has some life, but its power wanes when people
realize that gay marriage won't take children away from biological
parents who want to raise them. And marriage would help the more
than one million children now being raised by gay people.
Now, in a new book entitled The Future of Marriage,
family and marriage scholar David Blankenhorn tries a new argument.
He argues that support for gay marriage is part of a destructive
"cluster" of "mutually reinforcing" beliefs about family life. He
cites international surveys of attitudes about families and
marriage showing that the presence of gay marriage in a country
correlates with a series of beliefs that he describes as, roughly
speaking, anti-marriage.
For example, people in countries with gay marriage are more
likely to agree with statements like, "One parent can bring up a
child as well as two parents together," or, "It is alright for a
couple to live together without intending to get married."
Conversely, people in countries with no recognition of gay
relationships are more likely to agree with statements like,
"Married people are generally happier than unmarried people," or,
"The main purpose of marriage these days is to have children."
In other words, Blankenhorn notes that there is a correlation
between non-traditional beliefs about marriage and support for gay
marriage. He claims this allows us to "infer" a "likely causal
relation" between gay marriage and anti-marriage views.
What do we make of this latest anti-gay marriage argument? A
correlation might indicate something important is going on. It's a
clue that two seemingly unrelated phenomena may be related.
But by itself a correlation doesn't prove that one thing caused
another. People who buy ashtrays are more likely to get lung cancer
-- but this doesn't prove that buying ashtrays causes lung cancer.
If we relied on correlation alone, we'd think all sorts of crazy
things were causally related.
Consider what can be done with a correlation used to "infer" a
"likely causal relation." People in countries without same-sex
marriage are more likely to believe women should stay at home and
not work, that men should be masters of their households, that
there should be no separation of church and state, that people
should not use contraception when they have sex, and that divorce
should never be permitted. If these correlations exist, have I
demonstrated the existence of a "cluster of beliefs" that reinforce
one another, undermining the argument against gay marriage?
Or consider the more sympathetic correlations to gay marriage
that Blankenhorn ignores. Countries with SSM are richer, healthier,
more democratic, more educated, and more respectful of individual
rights. Have I shown that the absence of gay marriage is
likely causing harm in those benighted countries that refuse to
recognize it?
Here's another correlation helpful to the case for gay marriage:
countries with gay marriage are enjoying higher marriage rates
since they recognized it. Have I shown that gay marriage likely
caused this?
Even Blankenhorn's correlation is suspect. Non-traditional
attitudes about marriage preceded the recognition of gay
marriage in the countries that have it. How could gay marriage have
caused a decline in traditional marital attitudes before it even
existed?
Of course, Blankenhorn is still free to argue that
non-traditional attitudes greased the way for gay marriage, but
this doesn't show that it caused or even reinforced non-traditional
attitudes. What Blankenhorn needs, even as a starting point, is
some evidence that non-traditionalist views increased
after gay marriage began. He doesn't have that. Even if he
did, such a rise might well only be a continuation of pre-existing
trends.
And even if he had the sequence right, Blankenhorn would still
have the problem of trying to deal with the existence of multiple
other factors that have plausibly fueled non-traditionalist
attitudes. We can plausibly surmise that things like increased
income, longer life spans, more education, and women's equality -
rather than gay marriage - have led to non-traditionalist attitudes
about marriage.
Intellectual guilt-by-association has an easy appeal that may
make Blankenhorn's argument an anti-gay marriage mantra in the
future. His superficially frightening correlations have to be
carefully unpacked to show how misleading they are.