Every national campaign has its moments of revelation, straws in
the wind of change. For me, one of the most memorable blew past in
a snippet of video.
It was June. Hillary Clinton was conceding the Democratic
nomination to Barack Obama. A few minutes into her speech, as she
called the roll of her supporters, she hit on the words "gay and
straight." The camera angle was such that you could see young
people in the crowd behind her erupt in boisterous cheers. A few
minutes later a mention of "gay rights" elicited the same
reaction.
Those young people, it struck me, were reacting to Clinton's
gay-friendly rhetoric the way we are used to seeing social
conservatives react to gay-hostile rhetoric: with joyful
recognition that their brand of pro-American values, their brand of
patriotism, was being affirmed. The "moral values" energy was on
our side.
In 2004, when President Bush beat Sen. John Kerry in a tight
race, we thought we had learned the continuing, indeed renewed,
potency of values issues (read: gay marriage and abortion). An
activist state supreme court had legalized gay marriage;
Republicans gleefully seized the issue by putting gay marriage bans
on state ballots, energizing the party's social conservative base.
At a moment when voters were looking for stability and strength,
the Republicans wove gay marriage into an overarching security
narrative: America's core values were being challenged by radical
Islamists from without as well as radical judges from within, and
Republicans could be trusted to stand up to both. On the defensive,
Democrats scrambled to change the subject, triangulating away from
their gay and lesbian supporters.
What a difference four years makes. Again activist judges, this
time in two states (California and Connecticut), order same-sex
marriage. Again gay marriage bans sprout on state ballots. Again
the public craves stability and security, though this time the
threat is economic. On paper, the ingredients are the makings of
another 2004.
But this time the results were entirely different. In 2008,
Democrats used gays as an applause line, embracing us as a symbol
of the change agenda. More important, Obama embedded gays in a
security narrative of his own: America has been weakened by
divisive politics and fruitless bellicosity; inclusiveness can
restore the country's tattered unity, rebuilding strength at home
and prestige abroad. This time it was the Republicans who mumbled
and changed the subject, steering away from social issues both in
their choice of nominee and in their campaign.
Which election, 2004 or 2008, tells us more about the future?
You could argue that the values vote of 2004 was a fear-driven blip
in the larger trend toward gay integration. Or you could argue that
2008 was really about the economy, and that culture-war issues will
resurface when pocketbook issues recede.
It is too early to say, but that has never stopped a journalist
before, so here goes: To me, 2008 looks more like the new normal.
The cultural backlash against gay equality is far from over, and
the marriage fight, in particular, has years to go. But the core
message of legal equality has gotten through.
Now, "gotten through" does not mean "always wins." It means that
the presumption of gay equality is at least as prevalent as the
presumption of gay inferiority. According to Gallup polls, a clear
majority of Americans now believe that homosexual relations between
consenting adults should be legal and that "homosexuality should be
considered an acceptable alternative lifestyle." In 2008, for the
first time, Gallup found that as many respondents judged homosexual
relations "morally acceptable" as judged them "morally wrong." At
about 90%, support for "equal rights in terms of job opportunities"
is now so overwhelming, as to be a nonissue.
What about marriage discrimination, then? Opposition to same-sex
marriage remains predominant. Here, however, the problem is that
the public sees gender as part of the core definition of marriage,
not as a discriminatory detail. Eventually, albeit slowly, that is
likely to change.
Meanwhile, the public already accepts the legitimacy of legal
same-sex unions, provided they are not called marriage. Strikingly,
a recent poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, a Democratic-leaning
firm, found that a majority of young white evangelicals, ages 18 to
29, favor either gay marriage (26%) or civil partnerships (32
percent). That places young evangelicals closer to the overall
population than to their older confreres. In the foreseeable
future, the principle of same-sex unions, though perhaps not
"marriage," will be uncontroversial even on the Christian
right.
I think, though I can't prove this, that there are two important
transitions happening here. Both are good for gay and lesbian
Americans, but one will require some hard rethinking.
The first is that the antigay culture war is winding down. The
public has weighed the Karl Rove narrative (culture-war politics
strengthens America by defending our values) against the Barack
Obama narrative (culture-war politics weakens America by
undermining our unity) and has come down on Obama's side -
certainly for now but possibly for much longer.
Harder for us to adjust to will be this: The civil rights
mind-set, with its focus on antidiscrimination laws and
court-ordered remedies, has outlived its usefulness. There are
still discrimination problems, of course-for example, when schools
turn a blind eye to harassment. By and large, however, the public
no longer regards gays as an oppressed minority, and by and large
we aren't one.
The old civil rights model, with its roots in an era when
homosexuals were politically friendless pariahs, focuses on such
matters as protection from bigoted employers and hate crimes. In
truth, for most gay Americans the civic responsibility agenda, with
its focus on service to family (marriage), children (mentoring and
adoption), and country (the military), is more relevant and
important. With a comparatively sympathetic administration and
Congress taking office in Washington, the time has come to pivot
away from the culturally defensive pariah agenda - the Employment
Non-Discrimination Act, for instance - and toward the culturally
transformative family agenda.
Priority 1, and well ahead of whatever comes second, should be
federal recognition of state civil unions. Obama supported this, as
did, for that matter, all the other Democratic candidates. Marriage
will take a while, but federal civil unions, though not a cinch,
are attainable in the course of the next four to eight years, and
they would be hugely beneficial to gay couples, who would get
access to immigration rights, Social Security benefits, spousal tax
status, and much, much more. Federal recognition of same-sex unions
might also break the back of the "don't ask, don't tell" military
policy. How can one part of the U.S. government banish gay couples
while the rest embraces them?
Perhaps I'm Pollyanna. Perhaps the antigay political volcano is
merely dormant, not dying. Perhaps it is too early to move on from
civil rights. But I think it likelier that the country has turned a
corner in the culture wars. If so, the question will be whether we
can turn with it.