IGF CultureWatch

According to a new poll from the liberal Huffington Post and YouGov, “Support for gay marriage has become the majority opinion, and voters now also say they’re more likely to reject a presidential candidate opposed to gay marriage than one who backs it—something gay marriage advocates hope marks a political tipping point for 2016.”

About 20 percent of voters overall who say opposition to gay marriage is a deal-breaker, while about 15 percent say supporting it is.

Most Democrats favor a presidential candidate who supports marriage equality (54 percent). Significantly, however, more Republicans voters say a candidate’s opinion on same-sex marriage doesn’t matter or they’re not sure (47 percent) than those who favor an anti-gay marriage candidate (41 percent), while 12 percent of Republicans would favor a candidate who supports the freedom to marry. If true, this shows progress occurring in both parties.

Some may have assumed that more than 54 percent of Democrats would favor a candidate supporting gay marriage (they are the “progressive” liberal party, aren’t they?). I assume a greater percentage of opposition to marriage equality is still among African Americans, who as a bloc have lagged behind the rest of the party, according to separate polling, although these numbers show signs of shifting in a positive direction as well.

As for voters who identify as independents, the HuffPost/YouGov poll shows that they “tend to line up more closely with Democrats in their opinions of gay marriage, saying by an 8-point margin that they’d prefer a candidate to support than to oppose gay marriage. Those who’d prefer a gay marriage supporter, though, are less likely than their Democratic peers to say the issue would be a deal-breaker.”

Daniel Cox, the research director at the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute, observed: “I don’t think you’re going to see a single Republican come out in support of same-sex marriage, but you may see some downplaying it in preparation for facing a general electorate, which is by and large supportive of the issue.” I think that’s right.

Interestingly, YouGov polling in Britain now shows that throughout the UK “those people who thought homosexuality ‘morally wrong’ sat at around 15 percent,” but that “in London the number of people who said they thought homosexuality is immoral was almost double (29 percent) what it was in the rest of the country.” Turns out “diversity” and liberalism (in its true sense) don’t always go hand in hand. (Sorry, this isn’t “racist,” anti-immigrant or anti-Islam; it’s what the poll numbers show.)

More. Ted Cruz is announcing his presidential run at the Jerry Falwell founded Liberty University. His platform includes amending the U.S. Constitution to nullify court rulings on the constitutionality of unequal marriage laws. Cruz, it appears, is partying like it’s 2004. Beyond the insular Iowa caucuses, we’ll see how well that strategy plays out now.

Furthermore. David Boaz, author of The Libertarian Mind: A Manifesto for Freedom, tells Bloomberg Politics:: “Cruz is announcing at the Vatican of fundamentalism. That doesn’t seem like the path to a winning coalition, even within the GOP.”

Maybe he’s trying to be the new William Jennings Bryan.

Following on my previous post addressing former Congressman Barney Frank’s new memoir, let’s turn to Frank’s view of how America has both progressed and regressed. From the New York Times book review:

As Mr. Frank notes at the outset and conclusion of his book, the most sweeping and unexpected change from the moment he became interested in politics as a boy in Eisenhower-era America is that prejudice toward gay people has plummeted while skepticism toward government has spiked.

He is as troubled by the lack of trust in government as he is elated by the rise of cultural tolerance.

For some of us, this is a win-win (or would be, if the size, scope and cost of government hadn’t soared since the days of JFK under both Democrats and Republicans).

Americans should be skeptical about activist government, because its actions are so often counter-productive if not in fact destructive. Government should be held to the highest bar to prove that its interventions are necessary and the these essential objectives cannot be obtained other than through the coercive force of the state, which is backed by the treat of punishment.

Sometimes, federal intervention meets this standard, as when Washington (all three branches, executive, legislative and judiciary) intervened to put an end to unconstitutional state Jim Crow laws that institutionalized discrimination against African-Americans. But one of the greatest domestic failures of government has been its attempts to end poverty, more often fostering dependency instead of independence, in no small measure by undermining African-American families.

Still not convinced government action should be limited by strict scrutiny? Check out the amicus brief of the Mattachine Society of Washington, D.C., submitted to the U.S. Supreme Court in Obergefell v. Hodges (the consolidated same-sex marriage cases), and prepared with attorneys at McDermott Will & Emery LLP. It uses many recently acquired original source documents to show the long, tragic history of federal and state government animus toward, and persecution of, gay Americans. (For an overview, you can also read the press release.)

Rising distrust toward government? I’m all for it.

LGBT Democratic activists are never at a loss to point out GOP nastiness toward gay legal equality and social inclusion. But when they claim that nothing has—or it’s implied, can—change in the Republican party, they are being willfully disingenuous.

This past week saw Dr. Ben Carson, popular on the GOP social conservative right, come out with some asinine claims that being gay is “absolutely” a choice — and prison proves it, “Because a lot of people who go into prison go into prison straight — and when they come out, they’re gay.” Carson’s remarks were so over the top that even he had to backtrack and issue an apology, sort of.

This same week saw GOP mega-donor David Koch, one half of the brother duo that’s a bête noire of progressive Democrats, join with other conservatives in filing an amicus brief asking the Supreme Court to rule against bans on same-sex marriage. LGBT Democrats will reply that this hardly makes up for the Koch brothers supporting anti-gay candidates through the years (the Kochs give their dollars to conservatives who favor less government intrusion in business and the economy, and many but not all of these candidates are also social conservatives).

But once freedom to marry is the law of the land from sea to sea, and with gay servicemembers now serving openly in the military, the political calculus is going to shift markedly as regards gay issues. There will be an intransigent religious right, but mainstream conservatives will embrace the new consensus that gay marriage, like gays in the military, is a done deal and so let’s move on.

The GOP may, more broadly, defend religious liberty from those who feel wounded that everyone doesn’t share and express their progressive views, and I believe there is merit in the party’s doing so. That will incite LGBT Democrats, but it’s a side skirmish. The war will have been won.

More. Via National Journal:

Any Republican who says something incendiary about gay people will surely get media play. But with public rebuttals, political counsel and money, gay conservative groups are working to build a wall of defense to keep these comments on the fringe—and out of the 2016 conversation.

Furthermore. Some LGBT progressive have in the past accused David Koch of “pinkwashing” the Koch brother’s record by embracing legal equality for same-sex couples. But in the days since Koch signed the amicus supporting same-sex marriage, it’s becoming clearer that the media response around the announcement (fueled to no small extent by the willingness of Koch’s publicists to cooperate) is meant to send a signal to candidates who receive (or will receive) Koch support. Which is, opposition to same-sex marriage is not going to be a winning position going forward, so get over it.

If so, not everyone is getting the message, however. The desire to run on Jeb Bush’s right is a contravening force that will be a political dead end, but it may take at least another election cycle to make that clear to the intransigents.

Jonathan Rauch and others across the liberal/conservative spectrum ask Can Gay Wedlock Break Political Gridlock?: Some excerpts from their manifesto:

Suddenly, it’s in both parties’ interests to fight the broader decline of marriage. Here’s the case for a “marriage opportunity” agenda. …

But now, particularly as the legal and social barriers to gay marriage come down, we have reached a moment when we may finally be able to change course. Today we have a remarkable and perhaps even unique opportunity to think anew about the meaning and role of marriage and to come together as a nation to address the growing class divide in American marriage. …

Conservatives fighting for social stability and stronger families can now, based on the logic of their deepest values, recognize gays and lesbians who seek the same family values.

As I’ve said before, you won’t convert the hardcore traditionalist religious right, but other conservatives are starting to break ranks (witness the number of GOP governors in states where courts have ordered equal access to marriage, who have stated that same-sex marriage is now the law and it’s time to move on).

Other examples in today’s news: In New Hampshire “Dan Innis, the married gay man who unsuccessfully ran for Congress in New Hampshire, was confirmed to be a member of the state Republican Party’s leadership,” reports BuzzFeed. And Politico reports “The head of the Log Cabin Republicans has been invited to speak on a panel at this week’s Conservative Political Action Conference, the pro-gay rights group announced Monday.” (The Washington Blade’s coverage is here.)

Small moves, perhaps, but signs of the times.

More. Via the Wall Street Journal:

After a court struck down Florida’s ban on same-sex marriage last month, [Jeb] Bush called for “respect for the rule of law.” The softer tone from Mr. Bush contrasts with the positions of other Republicans weighing presidential campaigns. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee recently said that expecting Christians to accept gay marriage is like “asking someone who’s Jewish to start serving bacon-wrapped shrimp in their deli.” Other likely GOP candidates have taken stances akin to Mr. Bush’s. …

While socially conservative voters, who typically dominate several of the earliest presidential nominating contests, tend to oppose gay marriage, other Republicans see it as a wedge issue that would inhibit the nominee’s appeal in the general election. “I don’t know how you can be a conservative and want less government and yet want government to tell you what to do in your personal life,” said Julie Finley, who co-hosted a northern Virginia fundraiser for Mr. Bush earlier this month.

Furthermore. I didn’t intend for this to be a post about Jeb Bush, but here’s BuzzFeed on how things are changing in the GOP, which is the point of the original post:

When Bush officially launches his presidential bid later this year, he will likely do so with a campaign manager who has urged the Republican Party to adopt a pro-gay agenda; a chief strategist who signed a Supreme Court amicus brief arguing for marriage equality in California; a longtime adviser who once encouraged her minister to stick to his guns in preaching equality for same-sex couples; and a communications director who is openly gay.

Social conservative Rod Dreher laments:

To an extent that would have been unthinkable in past elections, one of the leading candidates for the Republican presidential nomination has stocked his inner circle with advisers who are vocal proponents of gay rights. … [Bush’s actions] ought to bring home to social conservatives how profoundly we have lost this thing. … Besides, we all know that the Supreme Court is going to constitutionalize same-sex marriage later this year, so there’s a political advantage to getting on the SSM bandwagon before SCOTUS leaves socially conservative Republicans behind.

Final word. Yes, Bush also says, when asked, “I believe in traditional marriage.” As do the GOP governors that are now enforcing marriage equality because it’s the law in their states. This, too, is politics, and there will still be attempts to placate the social conservative faction of the Republican base. But pretending that nothing is changing in the GOP is partisan hackery.

At CPAC, Ted Cruz was noticeably an outlier. That, too, is a sign of change.

The New York Times reports:

Speaker John A. Boehner said on Thursday that he expected House Republicans to accept the decision on same-sex marriage that the Supreme Court is scheduled to issue later this year.

“I don’t expect that we’re going to weigh in on this,” Mr. Boehner said. “The court will make its decision, and that’s why they’re there, to be the highest court in the land.”

The statement comes as a bit of a surprise, given the House Republicans’ expensive defense of the Defense of Marriage Act in 2013.

A commenter posted on an earlier item that he was afraid predicting that once the freedom to marry was secured, “rich gay men” would “vote their wallets.” To which I can only say, I hope so. Not because greed is good, but because a prosperous, growing economy that creates real jobs relies on private sector investment and modest, targeted regulation, not higher taxes on investments with ever-expanding regulatory burdens, uncertainties and liabilities.

More. The progressives sound worried. Jonathan Capehart writes:

Finally, the LGBT community must do a better job of making common cause with others seeking equality and freedom from discrimination. Where is the community on immigration? On economic inequality? On racial justice? …

There are poor LGBT Americans. There are millions of people who would benefit from an increase in the national minimum wage who are also LGBT.

By the way, the next time you’re faced with self-checkout at the grocery or drugstore, or an automatic parking garage, or, increasingly, automated self-ordering at fast food restaurants, you can thank those increases in the minimum wage intended to help lower-income Americans but which often end up cutting back their hours and opportunities—or eliminating their employment prospects altogether, especially for the young seeking entry into the workforce.

Furthermore. It’s not just LGBT voters who are feeling more at ease with the GOP. Silicon Valley entrepreneurs are being wooed by Republicans with increasing success, for example. As the Los Angeles Times reports:

Republicans, after musing about the possibility for more than a decade, have finally found a footing in Silicon Valley, ingratiating themselves with tech entrepreneurs who had long eschewed politics in general, conservative politics in particular.

Democrats haven’t yet lost their advantage, but Bay Area techies are writing increasingly sizable checks to GOP candidates and causes.

You betcha that the waning of the marriage issue is making this much easier for them.