According to a new poll from the liberal Huffington Post and YouGov, “Support for gay marriage has become the majority opinion, and voters now also say they’re more likely to reject a presidential candidate opposed to gay marriage than one who backs it—something gay marriage advocates hope marks a political tipping point for 2016.”
About 20 percent of voters overall who say opposition to gay marriage is a deal-breaker, while about 15 percent say supporting it is.
Most Democrats favor a presidential candidate who supports marriage equality (54 percent). Significantly, however, more Republicans voters say a candidate’s opinion on same-sex marriage doesn’t matter or they’re not sure (47 percent) than those who favor an anti-gay marriage candidate (41 percent), while 12 percent of Republicans would favor a candidate who supports the freedom to marry. If true, this shows progress occurring in both parties.
Some may have assumed that more than 54 percent of Democrats would favor a candidate supporting gay marriage (they are the “progressive” liberal party, aren’t they?). I assume a greater percentage of opposition to marriage equality is still among African Americans, who as a bloc have lagged behind the rest of the party, according to separate polling, although these numbers show signs of shifting in a positive direction as well.
As for voters who identify as independents, the HuffPost/YouGov poll shows that they “tend to line up more closely with Democrats in their opinions of gay marriage, saying by an 8-point margin that they’d prefer a candidate to support than to oppose gay marriage. Those who’d prefer a gay marriage supporter, though, are less likely than their Democratic peers to say the issue would be a deal-breaker.”
Daniel Cox, the research director at the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute, observed: “I don’t think you’re going to see a single Republican come out in support of same-sex marriage, but you may see some downplaying it in preparation for facing a general electorate, which is by and large supportive of the issue.” I think that’s right.
Interestingly, YouGov polling in Britain now shows that throughout the UK “those people who thought homosexuality ‘morally wrong’ sat at around 15 percent,” but that “in London the number of people who said they thought homosexuality is immoral was almost double (29 percent) what it was in the rest of the country.” Turns out “diversity” and liberalism (in its true sense) don’t always go hand in hand. (Sorry, this isn’t “racist,” anti-immigrant or anti-Islam; it’s what the poll numbers show.)
More. Ted Cruz is announcing his presidential run at the Jerry Falwell founded Liberty University. His platform includes amending the U.S. Constitution to nullify court rulings on the constitutionality of unequal marriage laws. Cruz, it appears, is partying like it’s 2004. Beyond the insular Iowa caucuses, we’ll see how well that strategy plays out now.
Furthermore. David Boaz, author of The Libertarian Mind: A Manifesto for Freedom, tells Bloomberg Politics:: “Cruz is announcing at the Vatican of fundamentalism. That doesn’t seem like the path to a winning coalition, even within the GOP.”
Maybe he’s trying to be the new William Jennings Bryan.