Let the celebrations begin. And through inauguration and the
"first 100 days" enthusiasm will be high, and LGBT Democratic
activists will tell us that a new dawn is upon us, led by the one
for whom we have been waiting and his chosen party. They will be
insufferable.
But sometime early in 2009, the country will come to some
inconvenient truths, as will gay voters. Obama has pledged to
introduce legislation that attempts to provide tax credits to all
earning less than $250,000 while simultaneously using the federal
troth to send checks to those who don't pay income taxes, while
also providing subsidized health care and college tuition, plus
trillions more in new pork-barrel spending to fulfill the promises
Obama has made unto the masses.
The struggling economy won't react well to raising capital gains
and dividends taxes as a matter of "fairness," and hugely
increasing income and social security taxes on "the rich," along
with the many regulatory overreach steps that the Democrats will
quickly pass. Add to the mix anti-trade protectionism, the rapid
elimination of secret ballots for union elections, and unleashing
the trial lawyers to bring suit against corporate America without
even modest restraints (the new "pay equity" act will allow the
plaintiffs' bar to reach back over 20 years to find discrimination
and sue sue sue). Growth will stagnate, unemployment will rise,
incomes will fall, and Obama and congressional Democrats will only
be able to blame the Bush administration for so long, though they
will try mightily.
On foreign policy, let's take Joe Biden at his word and
expect the worst.
On the LGBT front, some Obama loyalists at the Human Rights
Campaign and elsewhere will be awarded mid-level positions in
Washington's alphabet bureaucracies. They will use these posts to
defend Obama from critiques that he is not delivering on his
promises to the LGBT community, much as Clinton's LGBT appointments
defended his support of the Defense of Marriage Act and "Don't Ask,
Don't Tell."
There will be quick passage of a "hate crimes" bill federalizing
prosecution of crimes committed with animus against select
Democratic-voting constituencies. There will be the Employee
Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA), which even John McCain said he was
willing to consider signing. It will not, however, include a
"GENDA" component that prohibits employers from discriminating
against crossdressers -- and that will split LGBT activists who
have made the "T" a litmus test for progressivism (think National
Gay & Lesbian Task Force) from the LGBT Obamist apologists
(think Human Rights Campaign). It won't be pretty. And if the
intramural fighting gets ugly enough, there won't be any ENDA at
all.
Don't look for action on the military gay ban, either. Obama has
said (though the LGBT press passed over it) that he's going to
go slow and rely on the military's advice here. Gen. Colin
Powell, newly minted Obamist and one of the fathers (with former
Sen. Sam Nunn) of "don't ask, don't tell" (i.e., "lie and hide")
will provide him with cover.
The Democrats will control all the reins for two years. As their
mask of moderation falls away and their contradictory promises work
out in favor of traditional big government, big labor, anti-growth
statism, support will wither. They will loss Congress in 2010.
GOP at the Crossroads
The Republican party has a choice. If John McCain turns out to
be the last GOP presidential nominee willing to forsake gay bashing
and oppose amending the U.S. Constitution to ban marriage for
committed, loving same-sex couples, then the party will tread
backwards. And if our only choice in the years to come is between a
redistributionist regulatory state and reactionary social
conservatism, America's future will be bleak.
(I've bumped up into a new post my observations on the win
for state marriage bans that had been here.)