Aaron Blake blogs at the Washington Post that the GOP is witnessing a:
clash is between two converging branches of the conservative movement: the social conservatives who wants to outlaw gay marriage at all costs, and the newly in vogue brand of tea party federalists holding that, regardless of how you feel about the controversial issue, it’s a matter for the states. . . . it’s hard to marry (no pun intended) the two positions.
Blake notes that that while Republicans broadly are against gay marriage, “a survey by the Public Religion Research Institute last September, by a 55-to-41 percent margin, they think decisions about the issue should be made at the state level. And among tea partiers, the margin is even greater: 62 to 35 percent. So, at least on the surface, that’s a solid majority of Republicans AND tea partiers expressing what amounts to opposition to a federal marriage amendment.”
However:
The last thing someone like Bachmann or Perry wants to do is alienate social conservatives, particularly given their influence in Iowa, the home of the first caucuses. But the candidates have also got to remember where their tea party bread is buttered, and if they stray too far from the emerging federalist trend, they could lose some of that tea party support.
The amendment isn’t likely to go anywhere, but the judicial challenges to the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) could be front and center next year. And, as the Washington Post editorializes: “If defending DOMA requires making assertions that are clearly false, the law is not defensible.”