IGF CultureWatch

Via Salon, Paul Ryan to GOP: Don’t abandon abortion fight:

The two issues have long been linked, but it seems likely the two will cleave apart from each other in coming months as mainline Republicans moderate themselves on marriage but remain committed to the fight against abortion. That was the general consensus among activists we spoke to at CPAC, the annual gathering of conservatives in March, where many seemed ready to embrace marriage equality, but thought abortion was still a critical issue for the GOP. Even many pro-gay conservative activists, like GOProud founder Jimmy LaSalvia, are pro-life.

Progressives and party operatives will hoot, as usual, but there are a great many of us who fervently support marriage equality and are not pro-choice on abortion, or are at least equivocal (e.g., first-trimester vs. late-term, especially partial-birth murder of the kind defended by Health Secretary Kathleen Sebelius). The hegemonic liberal media has long failed to report abortion horrors such as this, to its continuing and utter shame. More here.

At the Wall Street Journal, columnist Bret Stephens offers A Conservative Case for Gay Marriage (behind the subscription firewall, alas, as it should be widely read). Stephens writes:

As conservatives debate the subject of gay marriage, maybe they should pause to consider their view about the other kind of gay marriage. You know the one: He works mind-boggling hours and only comes home once his wife is sure to be asleep. He beams at the sight of an old college buddy. Two years into the marriage, she starts murmuring to her closest friend that he just isn’t very interested in her, that way. Five years later he starts acting out in odd ways when he drinks. And he drinks a lot. …

I have a crazy theory; see if you agree. It’s that gay people generally want to lead lives of conventional respectability. So much so, in fact, that many are prepared to suppress their sexual nature to lead such lives. The desire for respectability is commendable; the deception it involves is not. To avoid deception, you can try to change the person’s nature. Good luck with that. Or you can modify a social institution so that gay people can have what the rest of us take for granted: The chance to find love and respectability in the same person. …

[A photo of a gay couple at their wedding shows] a picture of happiness, respectability and pride. Does that look like the end of Western Civilization? Or does it look like the fulfillment of America’s basic promise, the pursuit of happiness, honest, unembarrassed, at nobody else’s expense? Don’t you prefer it to a picture of the other kind of gay marriage—you know, the one of the groom with the faraway gaze, the bride with that look of anxious foreboding?

More. Stephen Sondheim’s lyrics to Richard Rodger’s music, “We’re Gonna Be All Right.” Near the end, the battling pair shift from reflecting about themselves to remarking on troubled couples they know: “Sometimes she drinks in bed. Sometimes he’s homosexual. But why be vicious? They keep it out of sight. Good show, they’re gonna be all right.” Or not.

Furthermore. Similarly, from the Washington Post, My father’s gay marriage:

Gays have always been able to marry. But I fail to see how society is strengthened when they are forced by convention to marry someone whose body is unattractive to them, whose voice isn’t what they want to hear in the morning or whose touch may be as grating as sand in the bed.

But because there are many truths, there’s this rejoinder as well.

OK, still more. I didn’t really intend to “invisibilize” bisexuals and I do believe, to a large extent, in the Kinsey scale. So yes, bisexual men are going to be able to have marriages with women that can’t be characterized as “quiet desperation” even if they sometimes seek sexual relationships with other men. But for gay men (Kinsey 5+) married to women, it’s a different story.

Jon Rauch favors a federalist approach to both gay marriage and marijuana legalization:

That some states could try same-sex marriage without betting the whole country reduced the stakes and contained the conflict. States’ experiments with gay marriage educed valuable information about its real-world consequences, or lack thereof, allowing for a better-informed, more rational debate. …

State leadership on marijuana policy has all of the same advantages as on marriage. It contains conflict by reducing the stakes; educes knowledge about what happens if marijuana policy is changed; and allows incremental adjustment to social change. For the federal government, yielding some measure of control over marijuana policy to the states is not a threat; it is an opportunity to manage change and preserve options. Painting federal policy into a corner serves no one, not even drug warriors.

The good, the bad, and the pragmatic.

One the one hand, Michigan Republican won’t resign after calling gays ‘filthy’ on Facebook. And on the other, Gay marriage could be ‘gateway’ issue the GOP needs.

It may take one more presidential defeat with support for the party from voters under 30 in freefall before the GOP will stand up and say “good riddance” to the Bauers and Huckabees.

The Supreme Court hearings on same-sex marriage this past week brought a flood of media coverage, along with widely reported very positive poll numbers showing that 58% of Americans now favor marriage equality, and some 80% of those ages 18 to 29, including a majority of young Republicans. It feels like a turning point (here’s an analysis by Nate Silver). A growing number of Republicans are realizing they’re on the wrong side of history.

So there’s reason to be reasonably optimistic (i.e., Cato legal analyst: DOMA is dead). The odds, say court-watchers, strongly favor a slim majority overturning DOMA’s prohibition on federal recognition of same-sex marriage (Justice Kennedy, citing federalism, joining the four liberal justices, citing equal protection). The court looks poised to decide it shouldn’t have bothered hearing the California Proposition 8 case, leaving in place the district court ruling restoring marriage equality in the Golden State (one day we may know why they took this one when a majority felt the “standing” of those defending Prop. 8 was so problematic; did Scalia insist he have a chance to express his disdain, again, for the idea of rights for homosexuals?)

The big disappointment for some was the extremely narrow chance that the court, with Kennedy as the swing, might have used Prop. 8 to invalidate all state measures against same-sex marriage; maybe even to have ruled that, as Loving vs. Virginia made mixed-race marriage the law of the land, Hollingsworth v. Perry would do the same for same-sex marriage: legal everywhere. And listening to renowned lawyers Ted Olson and David Bois, who argued for just that, it even seemed believable, for a moment. But that day of full legal equality is now years away.

However: If one year ago gay Americans were participating on a game show and the host said, “Congratulations! You’ve just won the restoration of marriage for gay people in California and, in the bonus round, the elimination of DOMA’s prohibition on federal rights and benefits in those states where same-sex marriage is legal. Now, do you want to risk it all by rolling the dice in the All or Nothing round, with the chance of winning marriage equality throughout the nation, or step back and take your winnings. What will it be?”

I think we’d be very happy to take what we’re (likely) to get, for now. And then continue the hard work for marriage equality, focusing on both parties, tomorrow.

More. I very much liked this rejoinder from a pro-same-sex-marriage Christian, who truly understands the gospel message. But oh, the hateful comments from his reactionary, use-the-state-to-beat-down-the-sinners co-religionists. Jesus weeps.

The Wall Street Journal reports:

Several justices sharply challenged the Obama administration’s handling of the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, which bars federal recognition of same-sex marriage. Some questioned whether the court should be hearing the case at all. …it wasn’t clear whether the justices believed they were free to rule on the merits of the case, amid questions about the legal standing of the parties.

The Obama administration said in 2011 that it believed the law was unconstitutional, but it has continued to enforce it while the case has worked its way through the courts. That stance drew sharp questioning from Chief Justice John Roberts. He told government lawyer Sri Srinivasan, the principal deputy solicitor general, that the government’s actions were “unprecedented.” To agree with a lower-court ruling that the Defense of Marriage Act was unconstitutional and yet enforce the law while seeking Supreme Court review “has never been done before,” Chief Justice Roberts said.

Justice Kennedy cited what he called the questionable practice of presidential signing statements, in which presidents sign a law but simultaneously issue statements that they consider parts of it unenforceable or unlawful. If a president doesn’t think a law is constitutional, he shouldn’t sign it, said Justice Kennedy. He added that the same principle perhaps applied in this case.

Based on the arguments, it seems that if the court can agree the parties have standing, Kennedy is poised to join the equal-protection liberals and strike down, on federalism grounds, the section of DOMA forbidding federal recognition of same-sex marriages in states where they are legal.

But what an irony if the court decides not to rule because of the Obama administration’s contradictory behavior of enforcing the law but refusing to defend it in court—a strategy meant to do the least political damage among religiously conservative voters (and yes, that includes many anti-gay African Americans) and LGBT activists by parsing the difference.

Trust-worthy court-watchers seem to agree, the Supreme Court, based on the Justices questions and comments Tuesday morning, seems highly unlikely to use the challenge to California’s Prop. 8 to find a constitutional right to same-sex marriage. The hearings indicated that the court may be poised to find a lack of standing for the groups defending Prop. 8, which would (let’s at least hope) leave in place a lower court ruling overturning it, which would (likely) restore same-sex marriage in the Golden state, but not in any other states.

Illya Shapiro at Cato at Liberty:

we’re left with [the] two most likely scenarios: (1) the “liberal” justices potentially joining Chief Justice Roberts on a ruling that the petitioners lack standing, which would probably vacate the Ninth Circuit ruling but leave the district court’s ruling against Prop 8 in place; or (2) no majority because Justice Kennedy (and perhaps others) would prefer to dismiss the case as improvidently granted (a “DIG” in insider terms), which would leave the Ninth Circuit’s ruling in place – so Prop 8 would also remain struck down, albeit on narrower grounds than in the first scenario.

Tom Goldstein at Scotusblog:

“Several Justices seriously doubt whether the petitioners defending Proposition 8 have “standing” to appeal the district court ruling invalidating the measure. These likely include not only more liberal members but also the Chief Justice. If standing is lacking, the Court would vacate the Ninth Circuit’s decision.” …

Justice Kennedy seemed very unlikely to provide either side with the fifth vote needed to prevail. He was deeply concerned with the wisdom of acting now when in his view the social science of the effects of same-sex marriage is uncertain because it is so new. He also noted the doubts about the petitioners’ standing. So his suggestion was that the case should be dismissed.

At this point, it looks like the grand hopes of a sweeping ruling granting marriage equality throughout the United States is not to be. Next up on Wednesday, the Defense of Marriage Act.

More. From the Cato Institute’s Roger Pilon, The Journal led astray by same-sex marriage, taking issue with the Wall Street Journal‘s editorial urging the Supreme Court to uphold DOMA:

It is troubling that the same-sex marriage issue has led the Journal to subscribe to the mistaken jurisprudence that it so often rightly and powerfully condemns in those other areas, as when economic liberties are in the government’s crosshairs. Liberty is of a piece. The simple presumption of our Constitution is liberty, with government authorized and empowered to protect it, and obligated to offer compelling reasons for restricting it when that should be necessary. In recognizing rights, the Court is not “creating” them. It’s simply acknowledging that they were always there, even if we haven’t always lived up to our principles and recognized them, as clearly we have not. That’s not judicial activism. It’s simply the Court engaged in making explicit what was always implicit, even if we haven’t seen the matter clearly until now.

Furthermore. Walter Olson writes at the New York Daily News, in The high court’s marriage jitters, that “signs point to a cautious ruling.”

Jonathan Rauch seems to concur, as does Dale Carpenter, in the post above.

How sad. Iinstead of reaching out and forging broader alliances with those who are real or potential allies on the right, many on the LGBT left would rather serve their partisan masters. A particularly blatant case in point: the Gay & Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation, once again doing what so many LGBT activist groups do—working to keep conservatives and Republicans as anti-gay as possible.

Fox News anchors were courted by GLAAD to attend the group’s annual media awards hoop-la, and when they did, GLAAD issued a stinging denunciation of Fox News and its anchors for, among other things, attending the event. If the anchors hadn’t shown up, GLAAD would have issued a stinging denunciation. Which is all the more shameful, since the views expressed by Fox News anchors and commentators aren’t monolithic and are becoming better on gay issues. Or actually, maybe that explains GLAAD’s (and Democratic front group Media Matters, to which GLAAD seems beholden) going into attack mode.

Hint: For Media Matters, and through it GLAAD, it’s all about maintaining the power of the party.

More. GLAAD could learn a thing or two from John Corvino and Bruce Bawer, who actually care about winning over conservatives. Via this week’s Washington Post book review of Corvino’s “What’s Wrong with Homosexuality?“:

Many gay-marriage opponents sincerely believe their own rhetoric that they want to protect marriage rather than stigmatize gays. And taking this rhetoric seriously is one asset of Corvino’s book, resulting in a level of civility whose absence in our culture wars is not only unpleasant but often ineffective in changing minds.

From respected conservative legal theorist Michael McConnell, an interesting WSJ op-ed on DOMA: The Constitution and Same-Sex Marriage. He backs a federalist approach that finds a reasonable way to restore same-sex marriage in California (arguing that those seeking to void the district court ruling that threw out Prop. 8 lack standing to do so) while also getting rid of DOMA’s ban of federal recognition of same-sex marriages in states where they are legal, without imposing same-sex marriage nationally. That sounds like a decent solution (certainly, we could do much worse), avoiding a political backlash in southern and conservative states. Unless equal really does mean equal under the Constitution, whatever the backlash.

This New York Magazine report shows how it’s a fearsome muddle to get divorced when you’re married in one state but not in another. States have residency rules for divorce but not for marriage, so if you can only get divorced in a state that recognizes same-sex marriages but you live in on that doesn’t, then someone you may have broken up with years earlier may claim a legal right to make medical decisions for you and inherit your property. And if the Supreme Court ends federal marriage discrimination and nothing else, the not-quite ex could claim the beneficiary’s share of your Social Security. You also can’t move on and marry somebody else while residing in a non-marriage-equality state. That’s not good.

More. Via Slate, The Sexual Fetish of Gay Marriage Opponents: “Defenders of DOMA and Prop. 8 say marriage isn’t about love or parenting. It’s about coitus.”

Furthermore. Richard Epstein, thoughtfully, on Gay Marriage and the Libertarian’s Dilemma:

Though I am still uncertain of how I would come down in these two cases, in the interest of full disclosure, I did lend my help to the anti-DOMA team…. But my equivocation on the case should not slow down Justice Anthony Kennedy. If he wants to maintain his own definition of liberty consistently, the author of the Lawrence opinion has to go the whole nine yards and come down in favor of gay marriage. Now, if he would only agree to return to the more general principle of freedom of contract embodied in Lochner v. New York as part of that decision, then it would indeed be a red-letter day for the Court.