The Supreme Court hearings on same-sex marriage this past week brought a flood of media coverage, along with widely reported very positive poll numbers showing that 58% of Americans now favor marriage equality, and some 80% of those ages 18 to 29, including a majority of young Republicans. It feels like a turning point (here’s an analysis by Nate Silver). A growing number of Republicans are realizing they’re on the wrong side of history.
So there’s reason to be reasonably optimistic (i.e., Cato legal analyst: DOMA is dead). The odds, say court-watchers, strongly favor a slim majority overturning DOMA’s prohibition on federal recognition of same-sex marriage (Justice Kennedy, citing federalism, joining the four liberal justices, citing equal protection). The court looks poised to decide it shouldn’t have bothered hearing the California Proposition 8 case, leaving in place the district court ruling restoring marriage equality in the Golden State (one day we may know why they took this one when a majority felt the “standing” of those defending Prop. 8 was so problematic; did Scalia insist he have a chance to express his disdain, again, for the idea of rights for homosexuals?)
The big disappointment for some was the extremely narrow chance that the court, with Kennedy as the swing, might have used Prop. 8 to invalidate all state measures against same-sex marriage; maybe even to have ruled that, as Loving vs. Virginia made mixed-race marriage the law of the land, Hollingsworth v. Perry would do the same for same-sex marriage: legal everywhere. And listening to renowned lawyers Ted Olson and David Bois, who argued for just that, it even seemed believable, for a moment. But that day of full legal equality is now years away.
However: If one year ago gay Americans were participating on a game show and the host said, “Congratulations! You’ve just won the restoration of marriage for gay people in California and, in the bonus round, the elimination of DOMA’s prohibition on federal rights and benefits in those states where same-sex marriage is legal. Now, do you want to risk it all by rolling the dice in the All or Nothing round, with the chance of winning marriage equality throughout the nation, or step back and take your winnings. What will it be?”
I think we’d be very happy to take what we’re (likely) to get, for now. And then continue the hard work for marriage equality, focusing on both parties, tomorrow.
More. I very much liked this rejoinder from a pro-same-sex-marriage Christian, who truly understands the gospel message. But oh, the hateful comments from his reactionary, use-the-state-to-beat-down-the-sinners co-religionists. Jesus weeps.