Over at the Scotusblog, focusing on the U.S. Supreme Court, a series of posts looks at same-sex marriage including “Why the Supreme Court will strike down DOMA” and “Marriage equality: religious freedom, federalism, and judicial activism.” IGF Culture Watch contributor Dale Carpenter discusses his misgivings over the suit to overturn California’s Prop. 8 in “Perry as Politics.”
The optimistic arguments suggest that Justice Anthony Kennedy (a Reagan appointee), given his trail-blazing record authoring decisions favoring gay equality in Lawrence and Romer, will be the swing vote needed to ensure that the federal government recognizes same-sex marriages in states where it is legal (it’s less likely that same-sex marriage will be imposed on all states, which is not necessarily a bad thing at this point in time, given the consequences of a political backlash).
Of course, anything can happen and if a Defense of Marriage Act case doesn’t come up before Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg resigns due to illness and President Rick Perry replaces her with a social conservative, then all bets are off.
More. Michael Barone’s column in the Washington Examiner, Same sex marriage a tricky issue for Obama, GOP, points out:
The Republicans’ problem is young voters. Huge majorities of them favor same-sex marriage, and for most of them it’s simply a no-brainer. They must have been turned off if they were watching the Republican presidential candidates vie with each other in opposing it in the Fox News-Washington Examiner debate in Iowa.
Indeed. And as for Democrats, Barone points to:
a split between Democratic core constituencies. Affluent liberals overwhelmingly favor same-sex marriage. But most black voters are opposed.
In a 2008 referendum in California, 70 percent of blacks voted against same-sex marriage. A same-sex marriage bill was defeated this year in Maryland after black Democratic legislators opposed it. Same-sex marriage would be legal in California and Maryland were it not for opposition by black voters.
Which is long known, but an issue no one on the left really wants to address.
7 Comments for “Looking to SCOTUS for Marriage Equality”
posted by Houndentenor on
I’m waiting to see how Scalia, Thomas, Roberts and Alito come out in favor of the federal government ignoring marriages performed by the states without obliterating the 10th Amendment.
I agree that they will probably leave marriage to the states.
posted by Jorge on
The optimistic arguments suggest that Justice Anthony Kennedy… will be the swing vote needed to ensure that the federal government recognizes same-sex marriages in states where it is legal (it’s less likely that same-sex marriage will be imposed on all states, which is not necessarily a bad thing at this point in time, given the consequences of a political backlash).
What an interesting approach.
Supreme Court opinions generally being a maze of eloquently bizarre logic, that kind of opinion would be very interesting to reach.
posted by Tom Scharbach on
Depending on how the California court rules in a few months, Perry may well be decided on lack of standing, which will serve to uphold the lower court decision but limit its direct application to California.
I doubt that SCOTUS will be eager to take on the substantive issues at this point, since there is no conflict amongst the jurisdictions, and may well decline to grant cert on any issue other than standing.
posted by Lymis on
” I doubt that SCOTUS will be eager to take on the substantive issues at this point, since there is no conflict amongst the jurisdictions, and may well decline to grant cert on any issue other than standing.”
I can see them dodging Prop 8, but I can’t see them doing so in the case, Gill v. Office of Personnel Management, where the state of Massachussets is suing the US.
posted by Tom Scharbach on
I can see them dodging Prop 8, but I can’t see them doing so in the case, Gill v. Office of Personnel Management, where the state of Massachussets is suing the US.
I agree. Section 3 of DOMA is doomed.
posted by BobN on
The 70% statistic so gleefully cited by Miller (what a surprise) is pretty shaky. First of all, I believe it was 68%. More importantly, it was one result taken from one question asked at only one precinct somewhere down in South LA. The polling group would not disclose which precinct. That, of course, didn’t stop the media from running with the “tension among Dems” meme.
posted by davinci38 on
It’s been well known for years that blacks are liberal on ALL issues except homosexuality. They favor abortion, criminals, more welfare, big government, but they hate those homos. What a bunch of hypocritical people!