Even to someone fairly jaded about seemingly dramatic poll results, Gallup’s new finding that support for same-sex marriage is now the majority position is breathtaking. The poll finds a huge one-year jump in support, from 44 percent in 2010 to 53 percent this year. If the pollster weren’t Gallup (gold standard), and if The Washington Post/ABC News poll hadn’t come up recently with exactly the same result, I’d suspect this was a fluke. You just don’t normally see attitudes change that much in one year, absent a catalytic event.
Moreover, support for SSM is up among every group: men, women, old, young, etc. Well, every group but one. The only group among which support for SSM hasn’t grown: Republicans. They continue to oppose it by almost three to one.
Though I admire certain aspects of Republicans’ plan to abolish Medicare as we know it, while admiring nothing about Republicans’ posture on homosexuality, on both dimensions what you see is a party increasingly digging itself into isolation, convinced that if if only adheres to the true faith the public will eventually come around.
I’d rather the anti-SSM constitutional amendment didn’t pass in Minnesota; but, if it does, I’ll get some consolation from knowing that the GOP will have shot itself in the foot with a vote that will look very bad, very soon.
7 Comments for “Gallup’s Stunning Finding: SSM Majority”
posted by esurience on
And yet in a liberal state like Rhode Island, with large majorities (2/3rd at least?) of Democrats in the state legislature, we still end up with civil unions rather than marriage.
It’s great that the public is coming along, but keep in mind that support for repeal of DADT was at 3/4 of the population and that was still like pulling teeth because of Republican opposition.
Support for ENDA is about 3/4 as well, but we’ll be waiting a decade for that.
Sorry for being Debbie Downer…
posted by daftpunkydavid on
call me a debbie downer as well, but unfortunately, and as we have seen in many instances, these numbers don’t necessarily translate into victories at the ballot box, the only poll that matters.
when young people will have voting numbers proportional to their share of the population, or when the pollsters will ask these questions to likely voters, as opposed to the entire adult population, then we’ll have a better view of where things stand when our rights are unfortunately decided by strangers at the ballot box.
posted by Carl on
I have seen absolutely zero pushback against Republicans for their anti-gay campaigns in one state after another since the 2010 elections that were supposedly not about social issues. That tells me more than polls, which are never reliable, and which constantly inflate support for gay rights.
This is the latest front:
posted by Jorge on
Not only the same result, but they show convincingly the same direction over time. You can minimize the results and still think wow.
Being a Republican, I’m blind to the reason myself. I have no idea what’s being said among Democrats and independents. Looks like some very sharp increases among the 18-34 group in the Gallup poll. Is this the farthest Republicans and conservatives can be pulled? I think there are still other valuable social changes to seek.
It does not matter. Ours is and ever will be a movement led by the left.
posted by Houndentenor on
I think part of the reason for those numbers is that most of the people who still identify as “Republican” on surveys are social conservatives, while those who are liberal or moderate on social issues while being conservative on fiscal matters self-identify as “conservative” or “Independent” when asked, even if they almost always vote for Republican candidates. I think that might explain why there is a big shift among independents but not among self-identified Republicans.
posted by William Quill on
I think a large part of this change comes from Republicans like Ted Olson, Ken Mehlman, Cindy and Meghan McCain, Laura and Barbara Bush, a small thing to people question their assumptions (even if the stated figure for Republicans hasn’t changed). Which goes to show the importance at this stage in focusing on getting conservatives on board to tip the balance.
posted by Jorge on
I’d definitely expect their comments to have some kind of influence and effect somewhere… else.