Despite what I had feared (see here and here), it seems common sense has prevailed. Equality California, the main gay lobbying group in the state, has announced it won't support a Prop 8 repeal effort in 2010. See the group's analysis here. This despite the group's hint last May that it probably would support a 2010 effort. It seems that EQCA looked hard at the voter projections and polls, the short time frame, the lack of unity among gay advocates for 2010, and especially at the lack of support for 2010 among big donors, and has decided to target 2012.
I'm still not persuaded that even 2012 is the right time, but at least it's more realistic. Further, I understand the need to start a fundraising, organizing, and educational campaign now on the basis of a target date that isn't five or more years away (2014 or 2016).
Of course, some of the "grassroots" activists on Facebook and elsewhere who think a campaign is a matter of sending around a bunch of emails and starting a website will continue the quixotic 2010 effort. But without the backing of the main existing California group, and especially without the backing of major donors, they will probably fail even to qualify language for the ballot. At least let's hope they fail, because if they succeed we'll face a real calamity: a 2010 fight we won't win.
Now comes the hard part: actually raising the money and organizing for a possible ballot fight in three years.