Shall I go out on a limb? I'll take exception with my IGF colleague Dale Carpenter, who suggests that the GOP's social conservative base will sink the Giuliani campaign. Based on factors including the early California primary, I predict in 2008 it will be Hillary vs. Rudy, and that Democrats will do all they can to publicize Rudy's support for gay rights-including veering on outright homophobia-in an attempt to keep social conservatives at home on election day. (And if I'm wrong, I'll delete this post and deny I every said any such thing).
More. Walker comments:
It's not "Rudy in drag" they'll use. They'll say in the debates "those of us who have gay friends-and I know Mayor Giuliani lived with a gay couple for some time after his second divorce" ... Just like the repeated Mary Cheney gambit.
9 Comments for “Fearless Prediction Time.”
posted by Antaeus on
All the Democrats need to do is find some small point where Rudy does not support gay, or better yet, trans, rights as fully as Hillary. Then use that as a basis to run those famous videos of the The Donald-kissing Matron of NYC in granny drag. Hillary might pick up more southern states than Bill did!
posted by jomicur on
This is a fearless prediction?! Democrats always act like Republicans and vice versa. Always have, always will. And both parties regard gay equality as disposable at best. Here’s another fearless prediction: Lindbergh will make it across the Atlantic.
posted by Timothy on
Steven, I think you may be correct. The social conservatives don’t trust Romney (and why anyone would is beyond me) and they HATE McCain. And I don’t think that they think that any other candidate has a snowball’s chance. At least with Rudy they know what they are getting.
As for Rudy in Drag, I wouldn’t worry. What the Dems forget is that straight men in a wig and a funny dress isn’t that scary to conservative straight voters. It’s all just good clean fun, as long as they know he’s straight and he looks downright ugly. And since Rudy will probably not try to “explain it away” but will just laugh, I doubt it will have traction at all.
posted by Walker on
It’s not “Rudy in drag” they’ll use. They’ll say in the debates “those of us who have gay friends — and I know Mayor Giuliani lived with a gay couple for some time after his second divorce” … Just like the repeated Mary Cheney gambit.
posted by Brian Miller on
Hillary versus Rudy will be the ultimate “who cares who wins” race. Neither stands for anything, and both have taken, at some point in their careers, every possible position on every issue.
posted by hank on
I want to apologise cause I wont comment about article…i just want to help a friend and I don’t know where to go and I want to anounce that i’m from Romania and I want to tell you that I found one more gey poeple that is afraid to tell everyone that is gay…i want to help him…I want that you all can help him…here is hes URL adress of hi5 page friends and stuffs…you might know about it http://ebetiuc.hi5.com, please help him, and please don’t forget…he might not recognise this…he is too shy…P.S.:I m not gay…he is!!! see ya..
posted by ETJB on
Gay rights has often been less about human rights and more about a tool to distract, divide and manipulate voters.
It is a ‘hot button’ issue that gets pulled out to play with; like flag burning or terrorism or the war on drugs.
At the Federal level, Democrats will push for small gains when it is politically acceptable set a decent tone.
Republicans will push for big retreats when it is politically acceptable and set an indecent tone.
Again, this might be a good reason for gays to put some time and money into groups such as Fair Vote USA and Ballot Access new….
posted by Randy on
Walker: “They’ll say in the debates “those of us who have gay friends — and I know Mayor Giuliani lived with a gay couple for some time after his second divorce”
You make it sound like that’s a BAD thing!
posted by Randy on
You want a fearless prediction? How about this one: It’s the Republican National Convention. Rudy has all the votes locked up, and he’s clear he will be announced as the Republican nominee.
The night before, Phyllis Schafly, James Dobson, Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity sit him down in a closed door meeting and inform him that that unless he renounces all support for gay rights (and stem cells and abortion), they will inform their supporters that they would rather lose to a Dem than win to a traitor republican.
Rudy caves. He goes to on to win the nomination.