California lawmakers on Tuesday became the first in the country to approve a bill allowing full same-sex marriages. Now come the real battles. Gov. Arnold is under big-time conservative pressure to veto the measure. That would be a shame. But even if he does allow it to become law, California voters will likely face two ballot initiatives next year, to ban gay marriage, or to ban both gay marriage and domestic partnerships.
The betting money, unfortunately, is that voters will keep DPs but scrap marriage equality. Nowhere have voters, to date, failed to ban gay marriage when given the chance, and when initiatives have included DPs, they've been banned as well.
The worst case scenario: voters scrap existing domestic partnerships, which in California confer virtually all state rights and benefits associated with marriage.
In 2000, California voters roundly approved Prop. 22, which altered the Family Code to limit marriage to a man and a woman, by a vote of 61.2 to 38.8, and the legality of that measure is now in the state courts. If there's a Schwarzenegger veto, he'll probably cite the voters' expressed opinion. Coming up, we'll see how things go when a full-blown constitutional ban is on the initiative table.
We know that relying on liberal courts to push through marriage equality is a recipe for backlash. But will a liberal state legislature's approval fare better with voters?
Update: Gay Patriot
blogs:
I'm torn between the will of the people and the will of the elected representatives. I think this is an important step. But what do the 61% of Californians who voted against same-sex marriage in the year 2000 think about their elected representatives? I don't know. I admit I struggle with it.
And one of his commenters, Joe, writes:
I fear their move is an overreach-one that will be repudiated at the polls (initiative process). It was a purely symbolic, unnecessary move because they already passed strong civil unions last year. Led by Democrats, they did it basically to say "screw you" to conservatives (and California voters) who don't like gay marriage. I would rather they hadn't done it at this time. I say this as a longtime supporter of gay marriage. Most of society (in your state) has to be on board with you, for the new law or institution to work.
If things turn out badly regarding next year's referendum, we'll
recognizes these, in hindsight, as valid concerns.