A word of warning from libertarian-leaning Republican Chuck
Muth, a political consultant and head of Citizen Outreach, a
limited-government public policy organization, on what might happen
if the U.S. Supreme Court throws out the Defense of Marriage Act
(DOMA).
Muth writes:
In any event, the New York decision based upon the Loving decision [in which the Supreme Court voided laws against interracial marriage] could well be the basis of a case which ultimately ends up before the Supremes over the constitutionality of DOMA. And when it does, my money is on the Court striking down DOMA based on the Loving precedent and the 14th Amendment.
Which brings us to the Federal Marriage Amendment (or whatever focus-grouped name they're now calling it).
If DOMA does get struck down, that will further inflame a large and vocal segment of the public and fuel congressional efforts to pass a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriages. Unlike today, such an amendment, post-DOMA, could well garner the 2/3 vote needed in both houses of Congress to send the ban to the states. And just by looking at the number of states which passed gay marriage bans last November, there's a good shot that such an amendment could get the [3/4ths] ratification needed to approve it.
Would this happen? I don't know, but given current political
realities, it certainly could happen. Should marraige
activists challenging DOMA at least give serious attention to this
scenario? Absolutely! Are they? Don't bet the ranch.
(hat tip: Rick Sincere
Update: Loyal CultureWatch reader "Pillar"
comments:
In the corporate world, scenario planning (also called "war gaming") is vital before any major strategic undertaking -exploring all the possible consequences of an initial action, whether positive or negative to your goals, and then developing possible counter-responses within each scenario, and on and on.
This type of complex strategic planning helps many companies avoid going off the cliff by attempting the wrong takeover or brand launch.
As for gay activist organizations, I think their strategy sessions basically have consisted of jumping up and down and yelling, "George W. Bush, You're Fired!"