A few weeks ago President Bush said that "nothing will happen" on the proposed federal amendment to ban gay marriage because too many senators did not see the need for it, signaling that pushing the amendment would be a low priority. Then hell broke loose on the right, as social conservatives demanded that the president change his tune or they'd turn on him in the social security reform debate. Dutifully, tonight Bush included the amendment in his state of the union address (though again stating his case in terms of reining in "activist judges").
Sadly, gays have no leverage with the party in power. Gays overwhelming vote and fund the Democratic party, and the Human Rights Campaign, the largest gay organization, choose inaugural week to attack Bush - right after he made his statement backing off of the amendment, just as activists were either critical or silent when, before the election, Bush made conciliatory remarks about civil unions.
The GOP will continue to kow-tow to social conservatives as long as the gay line is "one party only," as recently reiterated by Matt Foreman of the National Gay & Lesbian Task Force when he said, "It's not relevant what the Republicans in the Senate do."
Gays won't support a party that doesn't support gay equality; that party won't support gay equality until gay support increases gay leverage. That's the way things now stand.
Update:
Rich Tafel writes:
When the President said a few weeks ago that he wouldn't push this issue, gay groups attacked him for being two faced and social conservatives responded with a letter to Karl Rove demanding a response. I'm hopeful that by mentioning it he's given the social conservative wing of the party a bone, but with pressure against him from the gay left and religious right that will be tough.