Why did Bush do so well with the over-60 crowd? Scott Turow,
writing in the Washington Post's Sunday Outlook section ("A
Dominant GOP? How So?") finds gay marriage, even apart from
"moral values," can't be dismissed as a significant factor. Citing
analysis by Mitofsky International, he asks why men in the
60-and-over group supported Bush by 60 to 39 over Kerry:
Mitofsky looked at the issues that might have keyed those different responses. Older voters did not cite "moral values" any more often than other Americans (22 percent in general, 21 percent among the over-60s). But three other issues seemed to cut in the president's favor with this age group: gay marriage, resistance to the idea that government should do more to solve problems, and Bush's handling of the economy. Of the three, Mitofsky said, gay marriage mattered most. In short, Bush's key success was with older -- and old-fashioned -- male voters.
Today's older voters' opposition to gay relationships stems from the intense antipathy toward homosexuality that permeated society as they came of age (and among men, the belief that male homsexuality was a threat to their masculine self-identity). In other words, these voters didn't become anti-gay as they aged; they just brought their prejudices with them.
Turow notes, "Time will take a heavier toll on the older group." Indeed it will. Which is why the tactic of using gay marriage to ignite older voters will, if deployed in future years, produce diminishing returns.
Word to the GOP wise: Be wary of fighting the next war (or
campaign) with the tactics of the last. But it looks like the
Arnold
bashers on the right, going nuts over the Governator's call for
a more inclusive GOP, may have to learn this the hard
way.
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