Four years of incumbency should have given a sitting president with a relatively robust economy a clear edge; instead, Iraq remained the dominant issue, trumping the economy and everything else - including gay issues. Americans are fiercely split over the war and its continuing casualties, though I believe history will judge Bush right on this, the big one.
Nevertheless, it's clear that his support for the Federal Marriage Amendment wasn't the winner Bush (and Karl Rove) expected it to be. The millions of "missing" evangelicals that Rove believed could be brought into the GOP fold never materialized. Instead, the FMA cost Bush the active support and votes of gay and gay-friendly moderates, libertarians and economic conservatives, as well as all those turned off by what seemed an extremist ploy. And significantly, the anti-gay perception helped drive away young voters, who turned out in higher numbers than ever and voted overwhelmingly for Kerry. The GOP now must decide whether, going forward, it will be the party of Arnold Schwarzeneggerr, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, or of Bill Frist and Rick Santorum.
[Update: OK, if you've read down this far you
know Bush's victory was bigger than it first appeared on Tuesday
evening, and that the passage of gay marriage bans in 11 states (by
huge margins) showed the issue did play a significant role. That's
why this was an initial reflection. Enough of the e-mails!
]
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