On Saturday, Louisiana voters overwhelmingly approved a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriages and civil unions, one of 12 such measures on ballots around the country this year. Poll watchers say it's likely anti-gay-marriage advocates will win all 12, and win most of these easily, although the proposed ban in Oregon has a shot at losing (and maybe in Michigan, too).
The Massachusetts Supreme Court's Goodridge ruling, declaring that the Bay State must recognize full same-sex marriage -- rather than civil unions with the rights associated with marriage, as in Vermont -- will be viewed as a move that went too far, too fast, and triggered a wave of state actions that actually set back the cause of marriage equality for decades (it was George Bernard Shaw, I think, who said the road to hell is paved with good intentions).
Or maybe the success of these anti-gay ballot initiatives will show that states are quite capable of stopping same-sex marriage if they want to, derailing the pressure for a federal Constitutional amendment.
In any event, the battle for marriage equality is going to be
long and hard, with many setbacks but also a few victories
(Massachusetts voters may allow their same-sex marriages to stand;
other states will add or beef up their domestic partnership laws;
the next generation is going to be far more comfortable with gay
equality than today's average voter.) Better strategies, pursued
along less partisan lines and attempting to appeal to voters not
already on the liberal left, could be put into play. In time,
federalism allows what works to spread and exposes what's
hidebound. Not today. Not tomorrow. But eventually.
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