In his initial look at the numbers for Maine's Question 1, Nate Silver raises a fascinating issue. The People's Veto will be ". . . a standalone initiative in an off-year election in which voters will have few other things to consider. What sort of electorate will turn out?"
What a test case for the paradox of the minority in a democracy. The issue of same-sex marriage means a lot to those of us who are homosexual - to some of us, it means the world - but what does it mean to the majority of heterosexuals? What reason, if any, will they have to vote in this election?
Frank Schubert, the go-to guy to run anti-gay marriage campaigns, has pointed out that he faces a challenge from the fact that most heterosexuals haven't had much opportunity to think about same-sex marriage very much. . . and when they do, they don't see much to worry about. That's why Schubert needs to (in his words) "develop" things for heterosexuals to worry about - what he calls "impacts." Or, in the words of his partner, Jeff Flint, their job is to create a doubt and "project the doubt forward" into an imagined -- and very scary -- future.
Schubert and Flint came up with some very effective zombie tales in California and startled enough people to pass Prop. 8. But that was in an election where same-sex marriage was hardly the main subject in most voters' minds. In contrast, Maine's election will focus voters on that one issue.
What, for heterosexuals who support us, will match the passion to vote that we have, with our minuscule numbers? This election, more than any I can think of, will test the potency of sheer justice as a motivator for voters. Our supporters really have nothing else at stake except the naked idea of fairness. They neither win nor lose anything else with their vote. But fairness is a notion that does not even register in the minds of our opponents, aroused into hallucinations of religious persecution and childhood indoctrination. That will be Schubert's get-out-the-vote strategy.
Who will vote in Maine, and why? That will give us an x-ray of American democracy circa 2009.