Daily Kos posts poll numbers from Maine: If the vote to revoke gay marriage were held there today, we'd lose by two points, 46-48. Given that more people tend to vote against same-sex marriage than admit in polls they'll vote against it, the real gap is probably more like 5 or more percent.
No news in the finding that women and younger people are more supportive of same-sex marriage, but look at the partisan breakdowns. Our problem can be summarized in one word: Republicans. Democrats favor SSM by a two-to-one margin (60-30). Independents favor it by seven percentage points (52-45). But Republicans are overwhelmingly, crushingly opposed, 74-20-and their combination of solidarity and intensity swings the whole equation.
This intensity gap explains why, as two political scientists, Jeffrey Lax and Justin Phillips, found recently [PDF], policy tends to be more conservative on gay marriage than the voters prefer-not, as conservatives often insist, more liberal.
It also underscores the importance of targeting persuasion relentlessly to the political middle. Forget about preaching to the converted. Another five percentage points or so of independents changes the game. That's the challenge.
6 Comments for “It’s the Independents, Stupid”
posted by Jonah on
Jonathan:
Good post. Three responses:
First, wouldn’t the obvious focus of attack be Republicans? It is not that we will win Republicans, but rather that a good 5-10% of that 74% should be movable. It is unnatural to have Maine Republicans imbalanced on this issue to that degree. It suggests that there is low hanging fruit that can be plucked if the message is tailored to them. More focus on how couples are ready to live up to the high expectations and responsibilities of marriage, for example.
Second point is that this is an off-year election. If we have a superior field operation and GOTV effort, we can erase the entire deficit reflected in this poll. I don’t think that edge will be enough to win outright, but it can erase the deficit. My understanding is that, as of right now, our operation is superior to theirs.
Finally, the Kos poll did not actually ask the question that will be on the ballot. That question specifically includes language to the effect that the legislation protects the rights of religious groups to refuse to marry anyone. That is surely worth several points on the Republican side.
So while this poll is disappointing, and does point the way to a modification in campaigning for the next 6 weeks, it is not all that bad.
posted by LeBain on
It seems very tendentious to claim that “policy tends to be more conservative on gay marriage than the voters prefer”, unless perhaps you count non-voters in the group referred to as “voters”.
If voters decide the policy, it can be nothing more than exactly what the voters prefer. To claim otherwise is an argument for the subversion of participatory democracy.
posted by Thom on
While the poll and the post suggest that Independents are on our side, the closeness of the Independents in Maine is odd and reason for great worry. Maine is a state which is socially progressive, suspicious of outside money, and intolerant of intolerance. Her liberal mainline churches have more sway in rural areas than far right bible churches; and Independents are the largest part of the electorate. When one removes the youngest voters from the picture (who are *overwhelmingly* independent), the Indys are barely breaking for us at all. These are not people who would be snookered by right-wing-hate campaigns, so it is incumbant upon our side to find out what is happenning there (could it possibly be the strident and shrill and disdainful message that so many Gay folk have been spewing for so long?) in order to reverse what *should have* been a slam-dunk for us in this state.
posted by Jorge on
That’s what they’re saying about the health care bill: more people are strongly opposed than strongly supportive.
Given that Republican party identification has been decreasing lately, it makes sense that the ones remaining would be less persuadable.
As for preaching to the converted, well, another thing that could be done is preaching that they should be single-issue voters. Won’t work, though.
posted by jonah on
Thom:
Your post is ignorant. The No on 1 campaign hasn’t been the least bit shrill. If anything, it has been criticized for being too positive and conservative.
Neither is Maine a slam dunk. The latest poll is essentially identical to a poll taken before the legislation passed. And it took a decade of referenda fights before Maine finally adopted antidiscrimination legislation in 2005. It is not an easy state for gays. It is not a red state, but it is not historically a pro-gay state.
You don’t seem to know much about Maine beyond the shallow soundbites you have picked up on the net.
posted by Mark on
The Republicans are overwhelmingly against gay marriage while the Democrats are overwhelmingly in support?.. shhh… don’t tell Stephen Miller lest his fantasy world crash down around him.