First published March 5, 2004, in the Chicago Free Press.
I cannot say for sure that the proposed Federal Marriage Amendment, which now has President George W. Bush's approval and support, will not pass.
People with more political expertise than I think that with the opposition of liberal Democrats and pro-federalism Republicans it will not obtain the two-thirds vote needed to pass Congress. Others think legislatures in at least 15 or 16 states will be unwilling to yield yet another state power to the federal government - and only 13 are needed.
But because the outcome is uncertain this is the ideal opportunity for us to make our arguments for same-sex marriage as clearly and as often as we can. Never before have we had the public and the media paying so much attention to our arguments and our personal stories demonstrating the desire and need for gay marriage.
Nevertheless, while fighting a constitutional ban is vitally important now, it is encouraging to realize that in the long run anti-gay zealots are fighting a losing war and whether or not the amendment passes, same-sex marriage will eventually be legal. That assessment is based on consideration of the slow but relentless economic and social pressures that underlie politics and public opinion. They include:
- Young people's support. Since 1997 the annual survey of college freshmen conducted by the Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA has shown an increasing majority of 18 year olds favoring "legal marital status" for gays and lesbians. Other surveys show the same thing. Where young people are today, society as a whole will be in 10 or 20 years, because they will be society. Given this trend Bush will probably be the last anti-gay U.S. president, just as George Wallace the last overtly segregationist governor.
- Women in business and politics. Women are already a majority of students in college and law school and an increasing percentage in business schools. Every survey shows far more support among women for same-sex marriage, so as these women become more influential in business, law and politics, they bring their gay-friendly attitudes, countering the aggressive prissiness about gays common in older heterosexual men for whom hostility to gays is a key component of their male identity and male self-presentation.
- More religious ceremonies. FMA or no, more and more individual churches will find ways to offer same-sex blessing ceremonies, union ceremonies and even wedding ceremonies. Responding to heartfelt pleas from gay couples, more ministers, rabbis and priests will offer blessings and marriage ceremonies as a pastoral obligation and an ecclesiastical statement of conscience, even in religious sects that do not authorize such ceremonies.
- Employee partner benefit. More and more corporations, large and small, will feel the pressure to grant same-sex partner benefits and then add more extensive benefits over time in order to compete for and retain skilled gay employees. That too will help legitimize gay partnerships and pave the way for gay marriage. In the United States, where business leads, politicians will follow eventually - reluctantly, perhaps, but inevitably.
- Gay couples' visibility. The 2000 census data reporting that at least 600,000 gay and lesbian couples consider themselves partners gave a boost to the pressure for gay marriage. The number is a vast undercount by a factor of five or more, of course, but it was more than most heterosexuals would have expected and gave at least minimal quantitative evidence for existing gay coupledom. In the next census that figure will double and in 2020 double again.
- The wedding industry. In a Feb. 29 New York Times column Frank Rich made the interesting point that several businesses have an interest in supporting gay marriage. As more heterosexual couples have low key civil ceremonies or simply live together, the sizable travel and wedding industries - wedding planners, florists, photographers, musicians - and perhaps others will support gay marriage as a valuable source of replacement income.
- Federalism. A little noted advantage of federalism is that it forces states to compete with one another in areas such as taxation, business climate and quality of life considerations. States that establish gay partnerships or civil unions will have an advantage both in luring gays who are deciding where to take their job skills and in promoting a state's social openness to businesses deciding where to establish a new plant or office. Then as people become accustomed to gay unions, pressure will build to turn those civil unions into what they really are - marriages.
- Foreign influence. A few nations and two provinces of Canada have legalized gay marriage or its close equivalent. Several others grant significant legal and economic rights to same-sex couples, arrangements that will be added to over time and eventually be turned into marriage. The experience of other countries can show skeptics that gay marriage is nothing to fear, undermining dire warnings that gay marriage will harm society.
Gay marriage will happen. The Federal Marriage Amendment is simply a delaying tactic by religious zealots who never heard the story of King Canute.