First published October 15, 2003 in the Chicago Free Press.
The recall of California's Democratic Gov. Gray Davis and the election of Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger as his replacement has a number of encouraging implications for the future of gay liberty and equality.
First off how did California gays and lesbians view the race? Based on 3,772 exit poll and 400 absentee voter interviews (4,172 total), 4 percent of voters were gay, lesbian or bisexual. We can assume this is an undercount since people in suburban, rural or conservative areas are more reluctant to disclose their orientation. So the gay vote was probably closer to 5 or 6 percent.
Of the 4 percent who said they were GLB, 58 percent opposed the recall of Davis. In their choice for a replacement candidate, a bare majority (52 percent) voted for Democrat Cruz Bustamante, 31 percent voted for Schwarzenegger, 9 percent for Arianna Huffington, and 4 percent for the conservative Republican Tom McClintock. That means 35 percent (technically, closer to 36 percent) voted for a GOP candidate. And (including Huffington) 60 percent voted for a Democrat.
If the actual gay vote was more than 4 percent it is plausible that people who were comfortable disclosing their orientation (living in big cities, having ample social support, etc.) were also more politically liberal and those less likely to disclose were more conservative. If so, then the actual gay vote for Schwarzenegger was indeterminately higher than 31 percent.
Schwarzenegger's position on gay issues is unknown. He is viewed as a social moderate/liberal given his support for abortion, limitations on guns, quasi-environmentalism, his dismissive comments about "religious fanatics" and vague statements that gays should be treated equally.
But how much equality he thinks gays should have is open to question. Whether he would have signed the state's new domestic partners law is doubtful. That he would support its repeal seems unlikely, however. For the moment, that is sufficient. The standard model is this: The Democrats advance gay equality, the Republicans confirm the advances when they do not repeal them.
That said, as with so many things affecting gays, we have to look beyond specifically gay issues to see how events such as Schwarzenegger's election affect gays indirectly, for instance, by tamping down anti-gay passions and promoting general tolerance and social moderation. While the defeat of a pro-gay Democrat is no doubt a loss for gay Californians, it seems outweighed by the sudden ascendancy of a social liberal Republican like Schwarzenegger in the nation's largest state.
One might even question whether Davis would have signed the comprehensive domestic partners bill had he not been desperately trying to hold onto his voter base among gays and liberals generally in the face of declining public support. It would be ironic if gay Californians owe their new partnership benefits largely to Schwarzenegger's rise in the pre-election polls.
However that may be, Schwarzenegger's election is a defeat for the conservative wing of California GOP. For years they rejected moderate Republicans and nominated socially conservative, anti-gay candidates who went on to lose.
Schwarzenegger proved that a social moderate Republican can win election. The conservative McClintock got only 13 percent of the total vote - and probably less than one-third of the GOP vote - so perhaps California Republicans have learned a useful lesson.
By the same token, Schwarzenegger's election weakens, perhaps fatally, the hold of anti-gay religious fanatics on their powerful institutional base in the California GOP. Lacking that amplifier, their legitimacy is diminished and their voice and cultural impact will be markedly reduced.
National GOP leaders are already trying to size up the message of Schwarzenegger's election. The New York Times quoted a conservative former GOP congressman and political commentator Joe Scarborough as approving a GOP strategy of moving toward the political center on social issues.
"I think the country right now continues to get more conservative on economic issues and more progressive on social issues, " Scarborough said. "I think Schwarzenegger is ahead of the curve. "
The political message for President George W. Bush is to emphasize the "compassion" - although that term reeks of condescension - in his conservatism. Anti-gay policies and rhetoric may solidify votes in the South, but those are states he can win anyway even if evangelicals stay home. In the rest of the country, especially California, an overtly anti-gay message is going to lose Bush many moderate and libertarian voters. If he wants to win in 2004, Bush will have to listen to what Schwarzenegger tells him.
In addition, Schwarzenegger's mere existence will probably reduce expressions of homophobia within the GOP. Every time some southern GOP Senate or House leader says something anti-gay, Schwarzenegger, as head of the nation's most populous state, will be able to remind them, "This is not going to fly in my state. " He may not even need to say anything. The mere knowledge that he was elected as a moderate may incline GOP leaders to weigh their words more carefully.
And that, of course, affects the national tone on homosexuality. Once politicians cease or curb their homophobia, zealot bishops and preachers are on their own, without further support or legitimization.